Politics Cymru

What does losing look like?

2010-08-20T15:17:00.006+01:00

In an interview with the BBC, Nick Clegg has confessed his party is likely to lose ground in the next couple of years:

In an interview with the Westminster Hour, to be aired on Sunday evening, he conceded that his party was likely to suffer in the local elections next May, saying: "I think it is one of the oldest rules in politics that parties in government... tend to get a dip in their popularity."

"Do I think we are going to be able to defy those rules of gravity at a time we are taking very difficult decisions on deficit reduction?" Mr Clegg added.

"No. I think that is unlikely."

No surprise there but how badly could the party lose out in Wales at next year's Assembly elections?

Taking into account current polling trends, I've tried to think ahead (far ahead) to next May to see what the outcome might be for the Liberal Democrats here. Much like predicting the weather though - changes in the political climate between now and then will inevitably change this outcome...

At the moment the party hold 3 constituency seats (Brecon and Radnorshire, Montgomeryshire and Cardiff Central) and 3 of the regional seats (in North Wales, South Wales West and South Wales East).

Brecon and Radnorshire

Kirsty Williams’ seat. If they lost here it would be a devastating blow to the party in Wales and across the UK. Ms Williams holds a majority of 5,000 in the seat she’s held since the creation of the National Assembly. Her nearest rival was a Conservative while Labour and Plaid came a distant 3rd and 4th. If the Lib Dems were going to lose this seat, one would have to ask to whom would they lose it? Labour need to find 13,000 votes if they’re to come close – that’s about as many as they, the Conservatives and Plaid had at the last election here. Roger Williams’ majority over Labour and Plaid is even more impressive and with Lib Dem voters unlikely to abandon the party to vote for the Conservatives I dare say Kirsty Williams could well cling on.

Montgomeryshire

They lost this seat at the General Election, and this time they don’t have an incumbent candidate. It wouldn’t be a total surprise if the Lib Dems aren’t able to get their vote out here because of the coalition deal, while the Conservatives are – they could well take this seat. However, like Brecon and Radnorshire, all other parties come a distant 3rd and 4th in Montgomeryshire and the Conservatives (who traditionally don’t always have the best showing in Assembly elections) might struggle to meet expectations – after all having Lembit Opik as his opponent probably helped push Glyn Davies over the mark in May. I’d put Montgomeryshire as too close to call.

Cardiff Central

Jenny Randerson made an all important breakthrough for the party by winning this seat in 1999. The area had traditionally been Labour but the Government in Westminster wasn’t quite living up to expectations (as they never do) and so the Lib Dems snuck in – winning the corresponding Westminster seat in 2005. The tables could well turn this time around. Labour need an increase of 7,000 votes this time but anger and frustration might just about rally their supporters enough, and bear in mind Jenny Randerson is standing down this time too. This seat could well be a loss for the Liberal Democrats next year, they’ll be fighting bitterly to save it.

The Regional Seats

Due to the peculiarity of the Additional Member Voting system the more constituency seats the party loses the more regional seats they pick up (that’s assuming the vote doesn’t completely and utterly collapse).

If the party lost the Powys seats they would almost certainly pick up a seat in Mid and West Wales – likewise in South Wales Central. Because of their poor showing at constituency level in South Wales East and West but a reasonable vote on the list (by comparison to other parties) those seats would likely not be lost.

Their North Wales seat is under threat (that’s Eleanor Burnham). The party polled just 15,000 votes across the whole region at the last Assembly election while other competitive parties all had more than 50,000. The Conservatives could well gain some constituency seats, as could Labour, and Plaid look competitive. If any constituency seats change hands and the Lib Dems lose regional votes (and they don’t have to lose that many) through a fluke of maths (and democracy I suppose) they will lose this seat.

So where does that leave them?

Not looking too shabby actually – but then they are starting from a low base. The party is unlikely to gain in the Assembly election but they may only come away with a net loss of 1 or 2 seats. Which wouldn’t be devastating. They always did want to break that six seat deadlock they’ve had since the Assembly came into being but it’s a long way of Kirsty’s Project 31...

Dewi Tri

Nerys Going For It All

2010-06-28T12:22:00.003+01:00

Nerys Evans, the Plaid Cymru AM for Mid and West Wales, announced earlier that she hopes to change seats. The 30 year old who has sat in the Assembly since 2007 said on Twitter that she’s put her name forward for nomination in the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat .

“have put my name forward for the #plaidcymru nomination for Carms West and South Pembs for the Assembly election.”

This isn’t the first high profile potential constituency swap at the next Assembly election – remember that attack by Alun Davies on Blaenau Gwent AM Trish Law? Its over a year now since he announced his intention to run for her seat. Interestingly 50% of the Mid and West Wales regional AMs are now contesting other seats in the 2011 election. I wonder if there’s something in the water...

This isn’t the start of a mass exodus of regional AMs challenging for constituency seats – Peter Black has already ruled out standing in Swansea West for example. But it may be an indication that AMs who are looking to climb the party ladder feel that being a constituency AM gives them more legitimacy.

So what are Nerys Evans’ chances in Carms West and South Pembs? Well in the last two Assembly elections Plaid Cymru have not been that far behind there. In 2007 Angela Burns won the seat with only 250 more votes than Plaid Cymru’s John Dixon. But Plaid Cymru came third. With the 2007 vote being such a close race - two parties on 29% and one on 30% - anything is possible.

Angela Burns should still feel quite confident however given that the Conservatives had a 9.8% swing to them in Carmarthen West last time around. It makes even better reading for the Conservatives if you look at the Westminster election results there. Plaid Cymru nowhere near the top spot – fighting it out with the Lib Dems for third place.

So why take the risk? As the top name on Plaid's Mid and West list Nerys Evans is pretty much guaranteed to hold onto her seat in 2011. If Nerys Evans was moving to a safe Plaid constituency you could understand – but Carmarthen West? Am I perhaps being too cynical about politics? Could it be that as a local girl Nerys Evans just wants to fight for the chance to represent her local area?

Whatever the rationale behind it this is a big gamble by Nerys Evans. If it pays off it may give her more credibility as she moves up the Plaid ranks. But if it doesn’t - one of Plaid Cymru’s rising stars will be out in the cold this time next year.

Dewi Un

P.S Nerys Evans has yet to win the nomination –she has simply put herself forward.

Child Poverty - Mini Progress Report

2010-06-24T15:53:00.001+01:00

So this was published today – and it made me think, just how much progress has the WAG made in eradicating child poverty? :

“Deputy Minister for Children Huw Lewis has announced his intention to create several “pioneer” areas within Wales to pin-point best practice models of family support in our efforts to help lift children and young people out of poverty...”

(For more go here - http://wales.gov.uk/newsroom/childrenandyoungpeople/2010/100624pioneers/?lang=en)

Remember the WAG has signed up to eradicating child poverty in Wales by 2020. They missed their target of halving child poverty by 2010 and one wonders, why has it taken ten years to start working on best practice for family support systems?

It also makes you think that more than ten years after the Assembly started work this was unveiled:

http://wales.gov.uk/consultations/childrenandyoungpeople/cpstrategy/;jsessionid=lYXJMjjp82LsT0nDQ5TgnzRmTDJn2ZNZGkbqTkZf6vyltM1QW5TJ!-395677726?lang=en

Currently in consultation phase the “Child poverty strategy for Wales and delivery plan” seeks to “set out the Welsh Assembly Government’s vision for tackling child poverty in Wales and improving outcomes for children and parents living in low income families”.

The consultation is due to finish in August. But why the need for another consultation? What’s been going on for ten years? Shouldn’t there be some sort of action plan already in place?

I appreciate that there’s been a change of First Minister in the past six months, but it’s still the same party (coalition accepted)in control – so why another consultation?

Department for Work and Pensions’ figures show that child poverty remains at the2007/2008 level of 32% for Wales. With a 192,000 children living in poverty and 126,000 of those in severe poverty. With less than ten years to go before the 2020 deadline, and a lot of work to be done, is the WAG doing enough?

Dewi Un

Broken Heart

2010-06-23T15:47:00.007+01:00

There’s a very quiet crisis developing in the broadcast media industry in Wales.

In March Radio Ceredigon owners Tindle announced they had sold the station to Town and Country Broadcasting who, in turn, announced they would be moving the station from its traditional home (and indeed broadcast area) in Aberystwyth to Narberth in Pembrokeshire – already home to Radio Pembrokeshire, Radio Carmarthenshire and Scarlett FM. The station has been playing a mix of jingles and music ever since with the promise the new Radio Ceredigion will be along shortly.

Last week more than 50 jobs were lost in Caernafon as TV company Barcud Derwen went into administration while its neighbour Antena also issued some staff with redundancy notices. And this week another blow to the north west media industry as its owners announced Heart radio (formerly known as Champion FM and Coast FM) would be moving from its base in Bangor to Wrexham to form a new super station: Heart North West and Wales.

These days there are only a handful of people working out of the studios in Parc Menai (pictured) but the implications of the move are more wide reaching. For starters the station was obliged by Ofcom to broadcast a certain number of hours of Welsh-language programming every day, Welsh language news as well as Welsh music – none of these issues have been formally addressed by Global Radio to my knowledge.

They’re issues that have prompted a statement by Cymdeithas Yr Iaith Gymraeg – see a partial translation below:

Gerallt Roberts, a member of the Gwynedd/Môn branch of Cymdeithas Yr Iaith Gymraeg, said:

"For months Cymdeithas Yr Iaith has been in dialogue with officials from Heart FM about our concerns that the station no longer reflects the community it’s supposed to serve by playing a very high proportion of English music. We feel that the decision to move the studios from Bangor to Wrexham will do nothing to alleviate our concerns about the future of the station as a forum to discuss and reflect the full range of Welsh life in Gwynedd and Môn.”

Osian Jones, Cymdeithas’ organiser in the north added:

“This decision proves Heart FM isn’t serious about its claims to be a community radio station. We’ve been worried for months about the Welsh language offering on Heart FM, this decision will do nothing for Heart FM as a Welsh-language station for Gwynedd and Môn.”

“We’re asking OFCOM to reconsider the Heart FM licence, because it’s become obvious that the station no longer fulfils it’s licence obligations...”

That will be a tall order for Cymdeithas. Ofcom announced in April that radio companies would have far more powers to alter their licence obligations without seeking approval from the authority.

But the implication are wider still. Real Radio no longer wants to broadcast a radio station to North Wales, instead proposing a new national service (based in Cardiff) and other than Radio Maldwyn which is still going in Newtown there is no local commercial radio outside Cardiff, Swansea, Narberth and Wrexham.

So why do we care?

For starters there’s no longer a training ground for young talent in mid and north Wales. Aled Haydn Jones – now one of the most successful radio producers in the country – started his broadcast career at Radio Ceredigion in Aberystwyth. Many presenters on Radio Wales, Radio Cymru, Real Radio and S4C are veterans of these dying stations too. In the medium and long term, it could prove to be an almighty blow to the creative industries in Wales and an obstacle for any young people with an ambition to inform, educate or entertain through broadcast media.

And what of the local communities who listened to their local station to hear people who talk like they do and talk about the things they care about? The lives the presenters of the new Heart FM lead in London is far removed from the lives their listeners lead in Pwllheli, Menai Bridge and Conwy. In an era where localism seems to matter more than ever, and there are more powers being devolved to the Assembly and local authorities there will be fewer individuals keeping watch over them and fewer people informed of their activities as a result.

The future is very uncertain indeed. This is by no means the end of this story.

Dewi Tri

Cheryl's Welsh Questions

2010-06-23T12:34:00.001+01:00

Just watched the honourable member for Chesham and Amersham’s first Welsh questions on the BBC’s excellent Democracy Live. Here are some highlights:

Cheryl Gillan announced that she has sent a preamble and question to the electoral commission – who will now road test them for 10 weeks. Mrs Gillan claimed that she’s done more in her short time in office on the issue than Peter Hain ever did.

Peter Hain took exception to her account of his work and wasted a question trying to vindicate his legacy. It’s nice to see such unpartisan politics on this issue.

Mrs Gillan again announced that she would be staying impartial during the referendum campaign – to which she was roundly jeered by the opposition benches . It appears than neither she or her junior minister have an opinion on the matter.

Alun Cairns, half in Cardiff Bay - half in Westminster, opened his Welsh questions account - jumping to the defence of the St Athans and calling for progress.

David Jones said that the treasury had more pressing matters to worry about at the moment, when quizzed on Barnett reform. He said the Government would wait until Holtham reported again in the summer before making any decisions.

John Bercow, the speaker, got stuck in a few times – keeping the MPs (especially Huw Irranca Davies) in check. Perhaps most notable was his impression of a primary school teacher. He made a point of telling Mrs Gillan to face the front when answering questions - just like teaching an Eisteddfod recital.

Verdict

Hopefully the standard will improve as people get used to their new roles. The opposition will feel like they missed an opportunity today – they didn’t take advantage of a nervy Gillan and Jones.

The Labour frontbench wasted questions. Hasn’t Wayne David got anything better to ask other than “How many times have you been in Wales since your appointment?”. I understand the point he’s trying to make – but surely there’s a better way to make it? Plus Susan Jones had just asked a similar question minutes before.

But it was quite feisty at times, giving me hope of some Welsh questions gold in future.

Dewi Un

Brace yourselves

2010-06-21T12:16:00.004+01:00

What can we expect in tomorrow’s budget? The government’s warning it’ll be a hard pill to swallow...but this morning’s Financial Times has new research that suggests it will be a slightly tougher pill to swallow for those in places like West Wales and the Valleys than it is for those in London and the South East:

I don’t suppose that’s anything new.

Will be interesting to see how it plays somewhere like Ceredigion...

Dewi Tri

Green Fingered

2010-06-21T11:04:00.003+01:00

Darren Millar and Mark Isherwood have declared their shock in today’s Daily Post at the level of WAG spending on flora and fungi.

Over the past five years £175,000 has been spent looking after various shrubbery in WAG buildings – which, according to the two Conservatives, is far too much. Mr Isherwood *cleverly* uses gardening puns to get his message across.

“This Welsh Assembly Government must take a leaf out of the book of good financial husbandry and root out the deep waste in its own back garden.”

So just how much should an institution the size of the Assembly spend on its perennials? Would there not be outrage if guests and workers at WAG buildings were greeted by the sight of dead and dying daffodils? Don’t our AMs have better ideas how to save some cash?

Permenant secretary Gillian Morgan responded to Mr Millar and Isherwood by saying:

“Whilst plants have been used to improve the public and working environments in buildings with very low levels of natural light, these costs are currently under review given the current financial and economic situation.”

Interestingly £175,000 over 5 years is less than the cost of an AM for the same period – some may argue that the flowers are a better use of public money....

Dewi Un

P.S Here’s a good site for some green fingered cash saving tips – maybe the WAG should take note?

The Big Ideas

2010-06-11T13:11:00.005+01:00

What now for Labour? The big question. It’s the subject of a 2 page spread in this morning’s Guardian G2 magazine. Journalist John Harris has asked 9 “leftwing thinkers” what “big new ideas” the party should embrace.

Here’s a selection:

Proper voting reform

Focus on fathers

Get more women into politics

Establishing a green investment bank

The thinkers include Will Straw (from Left Foot Forward), Neal Lawson (Chair of pressure group Compass), Sunder Katwala (of the Fabian Society) and a little-known Labour politician called Carwyn Jones.

So amongst the calls to put VAT on private school fees, introducing a 35 hour week and looking at breaking up this big banks, what are the big ideas our First Minister thinks will set the world on fire...

Here’s an extract:

“We need to clamp down on dangerous and nuisance driving. I get this time and time again on the doorstep: people complaining about cars racing up and down roads, a hell of a noise...we should fight the idea that speed cameras are a bad thing. They’ve saved a hell of a lot of lives.

I also this we should investigate the activities of pubcos [big pub companies]. We’ve had a problem over the years with pubs being turned into flats and house - if you take a put out of a small community, you rip its heart out.”

I wonder if these will be the transformational policies the Labour party need to revive their fortunes? You never know...

Dewi Tri

Division

2010-06-09T11:17:00.006+01:00

Welsh Lib Dems have come under fire for their No vote on an amendment to the Queen’s Speech proposed last night by the nationalist parties and the Green Party asking for Trident to be included in its Strategic Defence and Security Review.

The amendment was voted down 27-330. Ayes included all three Plaid’s MPs, Caroline Lucas the Green MP and Welsh Labour MPs Paul Flynn, Nia Griffydd, Dai Havard and Siân James.

Welsh Lib Dems Mark Williams and Roger Williams voted against the amendment.

This morning Elfyn Llwyd said: “I am quite frankly aghast that two of the three Welsh Liberal Democrats have gone against their convictions, and their previous commitments that Trident should be included in the strategic defence review - if not scrapped altogether.

“At a time when they are part of a government telling us that we must leave no stone unturned in finding cuts to make, they are happy to splurge £100billion of money that we apparently don’t have, on an immoral weapon that we will never use.”

He goes on to bitterly attack both Williams’.

Trident was specifically named by Mark Williams in a statement during the campaign as an area the Lib Dems would look to cut so that it would have no knock on effect to Welsh funding.

It’s worth pointing out Plaid Cymru have been accused of similar hypocrisy over their coalition at the Assembly...well, they are politicians after all...

Dewi Tri

No News is...

2010-06-08T19:11:00.005+01:00

The IFNC pilot proposal is dead. Under plans outlined in the Labour government’s Digital Britain report, they were set to fund 3 pilots (one in Wales) that would replace and run the news on ITV. The winning bidder was Wales Live, a proposal by UTV and North Wales Newspapers.

Jeremy Hunt as Shadow Culture Minister argued all along these proposals were not in the best interest of the industry and promised to scrap them if he got elected. Job done.

Earlier this year, the Welsh Assembly passed a motion by the Welsh Liberal Democrats supporting the pilot in Wales. At the time their spokesperson Eleanor Burnham said: “I believe that this pilot provides Wales with an opportunity to restore momentum to English-language news provision. It is vital for our democracy that the people of Wales receive high quality local news from more than one source.”

The motion was opposed by the Welsh Conservatives.

Today Mr Hunt, now the Secretary of State, said: “I have long believed that the lack of high quality local TV is one of the biggest gaps in British broadcasting. Why? Because, ironically, in an age of globalism people feel the need for stronger not weaker connections to the communities in which they live...

“[The] plans for Independently Funded News Consortia were misguided.

“They had the positive benefit of stimulating new and imaginative thinking amongst local media companies for which I am grateful – and I want to carry on talking to those who submitted bids about your ideas.

“But, fundamentally, they were about subsidising the existing regional news system in a way that would have blocked the emergence of new and vibrant local media models fit for the digital age.”

See a full transcript on the DCMS website.

Plaid Cymru have been the first to respond today. Their MP for Arfon, Hywel Williams, said: “In a country with very few news outlets and many difficult political decisions ahead – the referendum and next year’s Assembly elections to name but two – this is disappointing news for the Welsh public, who will now not be allowed a wider spectrum of news.

“I am extremely disappointed that the ConDem government have not at least allowed these pilot schemes to get underway to see whether or not they do work. It appears that the time and effort put into these developments have been wasted.”

So what does this mean for national news in Wales? There’s a fear in the industry that ITV, having pledged their commitment to local news will seek to further cut budgets with unknown consequences.

Jeremy Hunt will publish further plans for local media in the autumn so I guess we’ll find out then – it’s often been said his favoured option is city-based TV (a licence for such a station in Cardiff was awarded last year but no one has used the spectrum since) but the viability of such proposals was brought into question by the demise of Channel M earlier this year.

So what awaits the Welsh media? We’ll wait (slightly nervously) and see...

DISCLAIMER: The Dewis (Steffan Powell and Glyn Tansley) worked on the IFNC proposal for Tinopolis – a rival of the Wales Live bid

Dewi Tri

And the nominees are..

2010-06-08T13:06:00.007+01:00

Choosing Select Committee Chairs is a long and drawn out process - and I'm not an expert in the ins-and-outs of it!

I do know however that the Welsh Affairs Select Committee will be chaired by a Conservative and as the nomination process draws to a close the only Conservative (or indeed Member) to be nominated for the Chair of Politics Cymru's favourite committee at Westminster is Mr David Davies of Monmouth.

Guto Bebb and Alun Cairns are among his backers.

The elections are being held tomorrow so there's still time for any other keen Conservatives to put their names forward - but I wonder if they will? Given Mr Davies' backing for the True Wales campaign, I can't imagine he's going to be many devolutionists' favourite choice...

The House of Commons has a full list of all Select Committee Nominations (up to the end of yesterday) together with their list of nominators. Nominations close tonight.

Dewi Tri

For One Night Only...

2010-06-02T11:18:00.005+01:00

Usually when an MP isn't an MP any more they take up a job as a consultant or a lobbyist or perhaps even as a non-executive board member. I think it's fair to say Lembit Opik was never a usual MP...so we probably shouldn't have assumed he'd be a usual ex-MP either.

This evening he'll be appearing as a stand-up comedian at Cafe Koha in Central London. £7 entry. I wish I could be there. Really I do.

Dewi Tri

Setting the date

2010-06-01T11:07:00.004+01:00

When the new Con/Lib Government at Westminster announced the date of the next UK General Election it raised more than a few eyebrows in Cardiff Bay and at Holyrood because it clashed with something else they had planned for that particular day in May 2015...

Now an adviser to the United Nations has warned of the extent of the dangers of holding the two elections simultaneously. This article from The Guardian over the weekend is focussed on the Scottish perspective but much the same arguments apply to the Assembly.

Previously on this issue, Vaughan Roderick has blogged:

"I don't think for a second the Electoral Commission will allow the two elections to go ahead on the same day.

So what are the alternatives? Extending or shortening the fourth Assembly would be a possibility but there is another solution. They could postpone the 2011 election for a year.

Perhaps I'm cynical for suggesting it but that would suit certain parties down to the ground."

Hmm...I'm not so of the legalities or practicalities of that...I think it's more likely this is going to be one of those issues that rolls on and on well into the next Assembly and prove to be another point of contention between the administrations in Cardiff and Westminster.

Dewi Tri

Arise Lord German

2010-05-28T16:56:00.004+01:00

Alun Cairns might be sticking around but Mike German is off! The Liberal Democrats have decided to appoint Mike German to the House of Lords as a "Working Peer".

Here's a brief statement from Mr German...

"I was thrilled when, many months back, Nick Clegg asked me to join his team in the House of Lords as a working peer. Now at this very exciting period in British politics, it will be a great privilege to be helping put Liberal Democrat policies into action.

"There is a real sense of excitement at the challenges and opportunities for my party, and I am grateful to be given this chance to be at the heart of the action in parliament.

"Being a working peer is the equivalent of a full time job. I will be alongside a team of very experienced and talented Liberal Democrat peers taking through legislative and policy changes. My precise new role will be determined by the Liberal Democrat Leader in the House of Lords, Lord McNally. However, I have indicated to him that I also wish to do all that I can to support the work of the National Assembly for Wales in Parliament. This includes the transfer of powers and functions to Wales and supporting a strong relationship between London and Cardiff.

"The task Nick Clegg has offered me to carry out is full time. It will mean that I leave the National Assembly as soon as is practicable following my introduction to the House of Lords. The next person on the party’s regional list, as democratically selected by members, is Veronica German, and she will take my place as the new Assembly Member for South Wales East.

"It has been an immense privilege to serve Wales in our National Assembly since its inception in 1999. I contributed to its establishment, and have seen it grow in stature and power. This has been a period of great significance in the history of Wales. I am grateful for the opportunity to serve Wales. I will always continue to do so."

Kirsty Williams says she's "very proud" that Mike German will working for the Welsh Lib Dems in the House of Lords.

The other new peer of note to Wales will be Don Touhig, former MP of Islwyn (if I've missed anyone else let me know!)

And here was me thinking is was going to be a boring afternoon...

Dewi Tri

Smart Move?

2010-05-28T15:24:00.009+01:00

Alun Cairns, MP for Vale of Glamorgan and AM for South Wales West looks set to retain both titles after the Welsh Conservative Board of Management met today.

They've just released the following statement:

"The Board has considered Alun Cairns’ offer to resign as the Assembly Member for South Wales West and has resolved to ask Alun to carry on in his role until the next Assembly election.

"No further comment will be made on this matter."

Ooo...touchy much?

In case you missed it here's why they're not so keen to see the back of Alun: link.

So that's the end of that then...maybe...

ADD: according to @RhiannonMichael, Alun will not be accepting a salary as an AM – he’s entitled to about £17k pa..

Dewi Tri

Not another commission?

2010-05-21T12:28:00.004+01:00

Yesterday the full Liberal Conservative coalition document was published (you can read it firsthand here – complete with pictures of Dave and Nick being all chummy).

If you look through it there are a couple of paragraphs of interest to Wales, particularly page 28:

“We will introduce the recommendations of the Calman Commission and introduce a referendum on further Welsh Devolution”

“We recognise the concerns expressed by the Holtham Commission on the system of devolution funding. However, at this time, the priority must be to reduce the deficit and therefore any change to the system must await the stabilisation of the public finances. Depending on the outcome of the forthcoming referendum, we will establish a process similar to the Calman Commission for the Welsh Assembly”

As Betsan blogs in far more detail (here) this second paragraph causes a great deal of problems for the Welsh Liberal Democrats who pledged in their manifesto to replace the Barnett formula.

What we have now is a change of tone from Kirsty Williams and her party who are dressing this new commission up as a positive, as something they’ve been fighting for. In response to an earlier Tweet of mine Peter Black defended a new commission saying “a commission owned by the Treasury this time so we can make progress and which goes further than Holtham”.

Well contradiction o’clock – let’s roll back to July 7th 2009. In this press release Kirsty Williams says quite clearly,in response to the Holtham Report,“The Westminster Government needs to act immediately” .

She also says “.... We have long argued that the Barnett formula is not fit for purpose and needs to be replaced with a fairer system.”

So it would seem that the Welsh Liberal Democrats no longer think that Westminster needs to act immediately on Barnett reform. Instead they are advocating yet another commission to look into it.

Is it any wonder that people have a perception that politicians just talk about things and don’t actually do anything?

Dewi Un

Playing politics with the referendum

2010-05-20T16:07:00.008+01:00

Today, this morning to be more precise, Carwyn Jones finally let us all know that he is in favour of an Autumn referendum – late October if possible. Not only has he set out his preference for the date but he’s kindly provided Cheryl Gillan with a potential preamble and question:

“At the moment the Assembly can make laws about some, but not all, things which only affect people in Wales.

Parliament has decided that the Assembly should be able to pass its own laws for Wales on all devolved subjects. But this can only happen if voters in Wales support this in a referendum.

The devolved subjects include health and social services, housing, education and local government. The laws could not be about social security, defence or foreign affairs.

Do you want the Assembly to have the power now to pass laws on all the subjects which are devolved to Wales?

YES

NO”

Is it coincidence or design that it is now Carwyn Jones decides to act on this issue? Now that the Secretary of State is from another party? A party that has struggled to fight off its traditional anti devolution stereotype. Surely Mr Jones isn’t playing politics with this issue?

But you have to ask if Peter Hain was still in office would the First Minister have made such an announcement? What Carwyn Jones’s statement does is put pressure on the Secretary of State to ‘push through’ the referendum process to try and ensure an Autumn vote. If (as I suspect will happen) the vote is sometime after October 2010 expect Welsh Labour to start accusing the ConDem coalition of ‘blocking’ the vote.

If Carwyn Jones has listened to anything that Mrs Gillan has said up to this point – or incidentally what she has said in response to his statement – then he knows that it’s unlikely the referendum will happen this October. Does this mean that the referendum is going to become a victim of cross boarder government squabbling? Is this the spirit of co-operation that we’ve all been hearing about recently?

The cross party mudslinging has already begun. Peter Black of the Liberal Democrats (here) and Jonathan Morgan of the Conservatives (here) placing the blame of a delayed vote firmly at Peter Hain’s doorstep.

It’s long been accepted that for a successful ‘YES’ campaign there needs to be good and strong teamwork between all the parties.

Those who are hoping for that outcome will no doubt be pleased to see the spirit of co-operation getting off to such a good start…

Dewi Un

Image courtesy of Dogfael @ http://www.flickr.com/photos/dogfael/3369342425/

Stop the press

2010-05-18T10:44:00.004+01:00

You might need to sit down for this one. The British press have mentioned devolved politics in Wales.

See The Guardian AND The Telegraph.

I know. It's a shocker.

Dewi Tri

Jenny Randerson to step down

2010-05-17T11:57:00.007+01:00

News just in - Jenny Randerson to step down at the next Assembly elections.

Here's her statement, analysis to follow later:

"I have this weekend informed my local party executive that I do not intend to seek re-election in the Assembly Elections next May.

This has not been an easy decision to make but after 12 years as AM for Cardiff Central, I believe it will be time to move on and find new challenges.

While I made this decision some months ago, I felt it was important to get the General election out of the way before making this announcement to allow my local party to focus completely on the job at hand.

I am delighted that I am making this announcement just days after we entered Government at a UK level with a strong reforming and liberal agenda.

The Lib Dems entering UK government is something that I have been fighting for, for decades and I’m really pleased to be starting the process of handing over the baton with a feeling of “job done.”

I do not intend to retire from politics completely and believe I have more to contribute however I also plan to have more time to spend with my young granddaughter and the rest of my family.

It has been, and continues to be, a huge privilege to represent Cardiff Central. It would be hard to find a more diverse and vibrant place to live and represent. I have been an AM throughout the development of the Assembly and I have enjoyed helping to develop it as an institution.

I have been lucky enough to have one of the most rewarding jobs imaginable and I continue to enjoy every single day of it.

Enormous thanks must go to the Cardiff Central team of Lib Dem activists and to my staff who have worked hard to support me. I give my promise to my constituents that I will continue to work as hard as ever on their behalf in the remaining year of my term as an AM."

Kirsty Williams response:

“Jenny has been a devoted and hard working Assembly Member and an integral part of the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Her devotion to her constituents and to Welsh devolution cannot be underestimated and I was proud when she was the first private member to pass a Welsh law in the Assembly.

“Her contribution to the party and Welsh politics has been considerable, first as a councillor in Cardiff and for the past decade, as an Assembly Member. As Culture Minister, she was responsible for implementing Iaith Pawb, the language strategy supporting and encouraging the Welsh language and establishing the Wales Millennium Centre. Jenny was also the first female Welsh Liberal Democrat to serve as a Welsh Minister in the Cabinet.

“Among these achievements in government, Jenny’s lasting legacy will be her own legislation to ensure that school children in Wales are provided with healthy school meals and the fact that across Cardiff Central, there are many hundreds of people for whom she has made life better."

Dewi Un

Smart Guy

2010-05-14T11:21:00.016+01:00

The Conservative management board are meeting today to decide what to do about Alun Cairns.

The new MP for the Vale of Glamorgan announced earlier this week that he intends to step down as an Assembly Member.

We have already seen a re-jigging of the Conservatives Assembly group in reaction to Alun Cairns’ departure – Nick Ramsay is taking over the roles of chief whip and business manager – a good promotion for the Monmouthshire AM and an indication perhaps of the high regard in which he is held by his Conservative colleagues.

So what is there to discuss? Alun Cairns is a regional list member, so in the event of him leaving the next person on the list takes his place, no? Alun Cairns has tendered his resignation. The Conservative management board has said previously that AMs should resign if they get elected to Westminster. So it looks pretty clear that Mr Cairns won’t be doing a David Davies, or is it?

Well as Betsan Powys hints here and Wales Home explains here it’s not that straight forward. So who is next on the list? Who ‘should’ be taking over form Alun Cairns?

Well it’s none other than Mr Chris Smart.

Don’t know who he is? Well in all honesty neither did I until a few days ago, but having spoken to a few people and done a bit of research, it’s pretty clear that he isn’t universally seen as an ideal replacement.

Why’s that then?

Well there’s a saying that says “all publicity is good publicity” – that’s not necessarily the case with Mr Smart here. Here are two excerpts from articles about him (full links here and here).

“THE Tory leader of Porthcawl Town Council has been declared bankrupt.

Coun Chris Smart, who held his Newton seat in May’s elections by just 14 votes, was declared bankrupt on June 6 by the High Court of Justice” – Glamorgan Gazette June 2008

Another:

“... he was bound over to keep the peace after a series of bizarre incidents where he was said to have posed as a school inspector.

Port Talbot magistrates were told Mr Smart stopped children in streets at Margam, Aberavon and Sandfields and asked them why they were not in school.

In each instance the children had full authority to be out of school.

On one occasion Mr Smart was alleged (emphasis added) to have made children bend and touch their toes and threatened to spank them with a cricket bat.

Mr Smart, who at the time was 22, was bound over in the sum of £100 to keep the peace for two years.” – Western Mail March 2007

He defended these actions by saying:

"I was over-zealous at the time and I don't deny that... I was motivated purely by a desire to stop truancy." – Western Mail March 2007 (same article)

The above article is about how his past has been used against Mr Smart before. In 2007 there was a series of anonymous leaflets produced. Read the whole article (link above) for the full context.

We will find out by the end of today whether or not Mr Smart will take over from Alun Cairns in the Senedd. He is certainly “ready, willing and raring to go...”

I suppose we’ll also find out if “all publicity is good publicity”...

Dewi Un

The other side of Cheryl Gillan

2010-05-13T14:52:00.005+01:00

In response to my fellow Dewi's questioning of Cheryl Gillan's appointment as Welsh Secretary, I've taken the time to think about why we perhaps shouldn't pre-judge her tenure...

The appointment of an MP from an English constituency as Welsh Secretary does indeed lack the “sensitivity” Peter Hain refers to. But is there actually any more to it than that? In practice, does the fact Cheryl Gillan got the job over her 8 Welsh Tory colleagues or 3 Welsh Lib Dem colleagues make any difference?

Firstly, if one wanted to start an argument about Ms Gillan’s Welsh credentials they might start by pointing out that the fact she was born in Cardiff, has Welsh ancestry and has (apparently) sung the national anthem on the radio puts her in a far better position than her Conservative predecessors (and indeed Nairobi-born Peter Hain who was parachuted into the safe seat of Neath for a by-election in 1991). But I for one actually think this argument is largely irrelevant.

Cheryl Gillan will ultimately be judged on the job she will do not where she lives or where she comes from. What the Conservative party were really judged on in Wales in the 1980s and 1990s was record unemployment and little regard for Wales as a nation. Things have changed. The Conservative party has certainly changed – from a party that was vehemently against a Welsh Assembly in 1997 to a party at least divided on the issue (with, I think it’s safe to say, the majority of Tory AMs being largely in favour of devolving more powers).

So down to work for Cheryl Gillan then! I reckon there’ll be 2 jobs (entirely within her control) that will determine her success or failure:

1. Giving Wales a referendum on further devolution to the Welsh Assembly. Peter Hain has had this one in his in-tray for a couple of months now and there’s been little movement. Cheryl Gillan said she would get it done and if she gets the wheels in motion quickly, fulfilling her promise, there could be a referendum in the autumn (the successful passage of which does, to some extent, reduce the role of the SoS)

2. Relationship with the Assembly – a much tougher needle to thread! It won’t have escaped anyone’s notice that the two parties in Government in Westminster are the two parties in opposition in the Assembly – laying the foundations for a name-calling, buck-passing and fractious relationship. If the new Secretary of State can manoeuvre that minefield with any degree of success it will bode very well for her amongst her colleagues at the very least. I should point out that in our time around Cardiff Bay Cheryl Gillan has been a far more familiar face around the place than Peter Hain or Paul Murphy

Cheryl Gillan will also undoubtedly be judged on how successful the British government are in boosting the Welsh economy and tackling any number of other national issues so you really have to ask: what difference will the location of Ms Gillan’s constituency have? Probably not a lot.

Dewi Tri

Cheryl, Chezza, Chegsy e.t.c...

2010-05-13T14:50:00.004+01:00

Well, so much to talk about and so little time.

However for now I’d like to focus on one lady in particular - Cheryl Gillan. The new Secretary of State for Wales polarises opinion and made me choke on my Curlywurly when it became clear that she was to take over from Peter Hain.

Why’s that I hear you cry? She was shadow Secretary of State for ages and so it makes perfect sense for her to get the job. Well I choked on my Curlywurly because:

As I’m sure you’re all well aware Mrs Gillan represents the good people of Chesham and Amersham, now last time I checked that was not a Welsh constituency. Surely the Secretary of State for Wales should be accountable to a Welsh constituency? Considering that she makes decisions that directly affects Welsh voters? Are the people of Chesham and Amersham happy that Mrs Gillan will spend all of her non-Westminster time here in Wales? Will she spend all of it in Wales? If she doesn’t - that can’t be fair on the people here either?

What I find strangest about this decision is that it’s not like they don’t have other options. How demoralising must it be for the 11 MPs that represent the governing coalition in Westminster that not one of them was deemed up to the job? Are they that badly thought of by Dave and Nick?

Word on the street is that David Cameron has a bit of a soft spot for Mrs Gillan and given that 90% of the new cabinet are middle aged white men here was a chance to get another woman into the mix. Is that good enough reasoning?

Can you see them taking the same approach in Scotland? Didn’t think so...

As Daran Hill points out here – the next Assembly elections are going to be tough for the Liberal Democrats in Wales and this can’t help, being associated with an ‘English’ Welsh secretary is not likely to be a vote winner.

Here’s what Kirsty Williams had to say on Mrs Gillan’s appointment:

“Commenting on Cheryl Gillan's appointment as Secretary of State for Wales, Kirsty Williams, leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats said:

"I wish Cheryl well in her job. The real test for her now is to show how committed she is to Welsh devolution. Cheryl Gillan has to stand up for the people of Wales and give us a say on how we want our devolution to proceed. An early referendum on further law making powers for Wales will be her first test." “

Hardly a ringing endorsement of her new ‘partner’ I think you’ll agree.

I suppose I shouldn’t really be surprised. Cheryl Gillan has been in the Assembly and around Wales a lot over the past few years and has played a prominent role with the Welsh Conservatives.

However given she had been ‘unable’ to attend the BBC's Welsh leaders debate. Plus the fact that there are 11 Welsh MPs to choose from (even some Welsh speaking conservatives!). I just thought it was curtains for Cheryl.

Cue the John Redwood comparisons

Dewi Un

A new kind of Politics....Cymru!

2010-05-13T14:26:00.004+01:00

Yes! We're back blogging.

It's been such an incredible few weeks for British politics and the coming months are set to make history in Welsh politics (it's almost time for an Assembly election you know!) - and so the Dewis can't keep away! We have been about in these past couple of months (you'll notice my fellow Dewi's recent take on what a hung Parliament means for Cardiff for instance- see here and here) but haven't been on Politics Cymru in far too long.

At the moment it doesn't look like the podcast will be back which we're both quite disappointed about but when we can we are going to aim to have some bits of audio and video so we can keep one of our favourite bits about the blog going. You'll notice we've spruced the place up a bit...but not too much and we've got a new list of What We Read down the left hand side.

We'll be getting down to business later this afternoon and we'll be back (with a bit of luck) in the coming weeks and months with more insight into the world of Welsh politics - looking forward to it!

Thanks for your continued support

Dewi Tri

Miao!

2010-03-12T13:53:00.004Z

You may recall this exchange between Bethan Jenkins and Peter Black on Twitter a few months ago.

Now, not to be left out, British politicians are getting in on the act.

Witness John Prescott vs Clwyd West’s own David Jones earlier:

DavidJonesMP Just heard @johnprescott in my constituency today. Hope he comes another couple of times before polling day. Will do me no end of good.

JohnPrescott @davidjonesmp Thanks for promoting my visit. Why don't you come & debate with me & Donna Hutton in Abergele at 2.45 IF you're in your seat!

DavidJonesMP @johnprescott no, I'm actually working in Westminster. And don't you notify colleagues of visits to their constituencies?

JohnPrescott @davidjonesmp Why don't you send your mate Ashcroft? He bought the seat for you last time http://bit.ly/9Oxtvr

DavidJonesMP @johnprescott and how much is Unite bunging Labour?

DavidJonesMP @johnprescott mind you, I suppose Clwyd West's loss is Hull's gain. They must welcome the relief.

JohnPrescott Unite members pay tax in this country. Shame your fella doesn't RT @davidjonesmp

DavidJonesMP@johnprescott still I'm disappointed you didn't write to say you were coming. Haven't you got a diary secretary to do that?

Democracy at its best? Awaiting any further comebacks...

Dewi Tri

The Assembly or the Assembly?

2010-02-26T12:12:00.003Z

If ever there was any doubt that the names of the Welsh Assembly Government and the National Assembly for Wales are a cause of mass-confusion try searching Google with the specific search term National Assembly for Wales:

Confused?

So’s everyone else.

Dewi Tri

How long does it take to write a letter?

2010-02-17T10:56:00.000Z

I’m sure as First Minister there’s a lot to do.

Searching for your security pass takes it’s time. And there are all those Plenary sessions to attend on Tuesdays and Wednesdays (not this week though because it is the half-term recess after all).

But amongst all that chaos, one would imagine Carwyn Jones might find an hour in the course of a week to sit down and draft a few pages to Mr Hain at the Wales Office to formally let him know the Assembly have approved a referendum vote on further law-making powers .

I guess not.

Dewi Tri

Try, Try Again?

2010-02-15T12:09:00.001Z

Last week 3 whole LCOs were given Royal Assent and power was transferred to the Assembly.

This week it’s likely we’re going to be back talking about the sticky and (ever so slightly prolonged) LCO process...

A few months ago I wrote a blog about the re-writing of the Affordable Housing LCO and its reintroduction as the Sustainable Homes LCO.

I said that the Assembly Government were optimistic that this LCO would have an easier ride through the Welsh Affairs Select Committee because “the powers asked for in the Affordable Housing LCO were too specific and so they [the WASC] ended up scrutinising the laws the Assembly could make instead of asking whether or not they should get the powers to make them.”

Turns out the WASC aren’t so keen on the powers being transferred actually – or at least the Conservative members aren’t.

Well if at first you don’t succeed...

Dewi Tri

Some thoughts on the Assembly vote

2010-02-10T09:55:00.003Z

Hello everyone! Many apologies for the light-blogging of late - there are good excuses I assure you!

But yesterday's vote at the Senedd has probably not escaped your notice - and as the vote was passed the press released came flooding our way - here's what the 'big players' made of yesterday's vote:

Dafydd-Elis-Thomas (Presiding Officer):

"This is an historic day in the journey that is devolution in Wales,” said Presiding Officer, Lord Dafydd-Elis-Thomas AM.

"It will now be up to the people of Wales, provided the Secretary of State for Wales agrees, to decide whether we move to the next phase of devolution."

Carwyn Jones (First Minister):

"“I believe this Assembly has shown - and this government has shown - that we can handle legislation responsibly. We have shown that we can deliver quality Welsh laws that can make a real difference to people’s lives in Wales. Today’s vote seeks to build on the real and tangible benefits that devolution has delivered for the people of Wales over the last decade."

Ieuan Wyn Jones (Deputy First Minister):

"People in Wales now believe that it is the Assembly rather than any other legislature which should make most of the decisions that affect their daily lives. And I am confident that if you ask people should the Assembly have more tools to do the job more effectively, then most people in Wales would say ‘yes’.

"If the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Scottish Parliament have powers to make laws without having to seek the consent from Westminster, then why should it be any different for us in Wales.

"We are proud that we have brought legislation closer to the people of Wales. But we know we can do more with the proper tools. We want to make laws in Wales, for Wales."

Peter Hain (Secretary of State for Wales):

"Carwyn and I have been working very closely together over the past two months to make progress on this issue. I fully support the First Minister's approach and now look forward to receiving his letter so I can begin the necessary preparatory work to take this forward. In the meantime, as Carwyn and I have said jointly, we both agree that the priority in the coming months will be the General Election, the outcome which will be so important for Wales. We must secure economic recovery for Wales, not choke it off with hasty cuts to Government spending.‬"

Kirsty Williams (Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats):

"While the General Election and issues such as the economy, our health service and schools must take precedence over procedural issues, this doesn’t mean that the yes campaign cannot start getting organised so that we can be quick out of the blocks when the referendum is called.

"Any campaign for the referendum must make it clear that the next step is not about independence and will not result in more spending on the Assembly – but that it will simply give Wales the tools to do the jobs we were elected to do – to make lives better for people in Wales"

Nick Bourne (Leader of the Welsh Conservatives):

"Today’s vote will enable people on both sides of the argument to have their say on the way Wales is governed.

"What is important now is that we get clarity and a resolution to the current unsatisfactory LCO procedure so the Assembly can get to grips with the issues that matter to the people of Wales."

Elfyn LLwyd (Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster):

"It is clear from the three years that it has taken for Westminster to transfer legislation to Cardiff on the Welsh language, sustainable housing and the environment that the current LCO method of transferring powers is slow and unwieldy.

"Moreover the complex LCO system prevents the Assembly from taking ‘prompt action’.

"A positive outcome for the referendum will mean that Wales has a faster, more efficient and less wasteful system that serves our communities much better."

So Mr Hain! It's over to you...

Dewi Tri

Is This Misleading?

2010-01-12T15:54:00.003Z

You've seen them, you can’t move without coming across one of David Cameron’s much talked about posters. They’re big, they’re snazzy and they’re part of the first salvo in the general election campaign, but do they mislead the people of Wales? (see one here)

The thrust of David Cameron’s message is that should he become Prime Minister he would protect NHS spending saying “Ill cut the deficit not the NHS”. Given that health is devolved, and the decision on NHS funding here in the hands of the WAG, does DC’s poster mislead? Is this not a false promise? There may be people in Wales who decide to vote Conservative because of this pledge, how annoyed will they be when they discover that he has no direct control over how much the Assembly spends on the NHS?

We asked Nick Bourne this very question earlier today and he didn’t seem to think that the posters are misleading. After reminding us that his party was unionist in its outlook, he told us that it’s important to remember that the decision on how much money the Assembly gets to spend ultimately comes from the UK Government. He also told us that that Newport and Cardiff get a lot of cross border travel from England, so no the posters are not misleading.

Mr Bourne also said that he had not received a single complaint about the posters, so they must be fine. When then questioned about the lack of understanding amongst the people of Wales about who does what post devolution he suggested that most people knew what the deal is, and that in any case it was up to media to make it clear for them.

We try our best to clarify here at Politics Cymru so here we go.

Yes the cash given to the Assembly comes from central government. So should David Cameron win the general election and ring fence NHS spending then the Barnett consequential for health would remain the same.

But that doesn’t mean that DC can guarantee that Welsh NHS funding stays the same. The consequentials decide how much money is in the Assembly’s pot but it’s then up to the Assembly to dish it out. If they choose to halve the health budget (which is very doubtful!) then they can.

Does that not mean that these posters are muddying the waters?

I don’t mean to single the conservative party out here, this is the first of many slipups that I foresee happening during the general election. You can bet your house that over the course of the next few months all parties will make announcements and statements here which are not directly applicable, interesting I’m sure, but relevant?

It also throws up the question of when the leadership debates are in full swing and education policy is being discussed, for example, can we expect to see some text scrolling across the bottom of the screen reading: Not applicable in Scotland and Wales.

Food for thought

Dewi Un

New Committee Members

2010-01-12T14:29:00.002Z

I’m sure there's some people out there who are genuinely interested in who sits on certain committees in the Assembly. So for that silent majority here’s a list of some changes to those committees.

Legislation Committee No.1 - Val Lloyd AM (Labour) in place of Huw Lewis AM (Labour).

Legislation Committee No.2 - Rhodri Morgan AM (Labour) and Lynne Neagle AM (Labour) in place of Jeff Cuthbert AM (Labour) and Sandy Mewies AM (Labour).

Legislation Committee No.3 - Joyce Watson AM (Labour) in place of Janice Gregory AM (Labour).

Legislation Committee No.4 - Christine Chapman AM (Labour) and Brian Gibbons AM (Labour) in place of Lorraine Barrett AM (Labour) and Joyce Watson AM (Labour).

Legislation Committee No.5 - Andrew Davies AM (Labour) in place of Lesley Griffiths AM (Labour).

Subordinate Legislation Committee - Rhodri Morgan AM (Labour) in place of Joyce Watson AM (Labour).

Enterprise and Learning Committee - Andrew Davies AM (Labour) and Brian Gibbons AM (Labour) in place of Huw Lewis AM (Labour) and Sandy Mewies AM (Labour).

Communities and Culture Committee - Sandy Mewies AM (Labour), Alun Davies AM (Labour) and Mohammed Asghar AM (Conservative) in place of Janice Gregory AM (Labour), Lesley Griffiths AM (Labour) and Alun Cairns AM (Conservative).

Sustainability Committee - Irene James AM (Labour) and Joyce Watson AM (Labour) in place of Alun Davies AM (Labour) and Lesley Griffiths AM (Labour).

Public Accounts Committee - Alun Davies AM (Labour), Jeff Cuthbert AM (Labour) and Sandy Mewies AM (Labour) in place of Janice Gregory AM (Labour), Lesley Griffiths AM (Labour) and Huw Lewis AM (Labour).

Finance Committee - Lorraine Barrett AM (Labour), Andrew Davies AM (Labour) and Brian Gibbons AM (Labour) in place of Alun Davies AM (Labour), Huw Lewis AM (Labour) and Joyce Watson AM (Labour).

European and External Affairs Committee - Rhodri Morgan AM (Labour) in place of Sandy Mewies AM (Labour).

Equality of Opportunity Committee - Mohammed Asghar AM (Conservative) in place of Jonathan Morgan AM (Conservative).

Children and Young People Committee - Sandy Mewies AM (Labour) and Joyce Watson AM (Labour) in place of Christine Chapman AM (Labour) and Lynne Neagle AM (Labour).

Petitions Committee - Christine Chapman AM (Labour) in place of Val Lloyd AM (Labour).

Business Committee – Jane Hutt AM (Labour) in place of Carwyn Jones AM (Labour).

Dewi Un

Cameron in Wales Video

2010-01-08T17:22:00.002Z

Following my colleague's earlier post, here's a look at David Cameron's trip to Newport.

Dewi Tri

Cameron in the Port...

2010-01-08T15:50:00.002Z

It can’t be often that a Newport City Council depot comes to a standstill because a flock of journalists turn up. That was the case this lunchtime however, the journalists arriving in force for David Cameron’s flash visit.

Cameron spent his time meeting local AM Mohammad Asghar as well as the guys who have been out and about gritting the roads, he seemed genuinely interested to find out how they’ve been getting on. He was in and out faster than you could say “marriage tax proposals” off to do more press events and I suspect have some meetings about Conservative strategy in Wales.

Although his visit can only be described as a flying one it shows that Wales is no longer a no go area for the Conservatives. On the way from Cardiff to Newport we came across 3 different Cameron posters, which shows they’re spending money here. There also seems to be an air of confidence around the party in Wales now and they seem to genuinely believe they can return 10+ MPs and are actively campaigning hard here.

It’s often said that David Cameron is a good communicator and you could see why today. He looked happy and comfortable talking to the local councillors and to the boys driving the gritters. His presence here will help those door knocking for the Welsh Conservatives fight the accusation that their party is too South East-centric.

We all know that the Conservative pre-electioneering has started, today it came to Wales. The only question know is, will it be enough.

Dewi Un

The Welsh Election

2010-01-07T10:10:00.011Z

It’s unlikely to have passed you by: it’s an election year!

With so many Welsh MPs standing down, the political landscape here will certainly change, but with the Conservatives polling so well and Plaid Cymru offering a real challenge to Labour in several seats, the landscape could well change beyond all recognition.

This blog is an overview of the whole country as we head into an election year like we’ve never seen before...

Gwynedd and Anglesey

Major Plaid target area. There are currently 4 seats covering Gwynedd and Anglesey – 2 of which are held by Labour and 2 by Plaid. Next time around there are only going to be 3 seats: Dwyfor Meirionnydd, Arfon and Ynys Mon. All 3 of the corresponding seats are held by Plaid in the Assembly. However, Ynys Mon is by no means a cert for Plaid. Albert Owen is popular on the island and has been very vocal on Anglesey Aluminium and Wylfa B. Llais Gwynedd might just throw a spanner in the works in the Gwynedd seats – they won’t win, but they could well take key Plaid votes in rural wards which could upset the nationalists in Dwyfor Meirionnydd (but whether it’d be enough to stop Elfyn Llwyd is unlikely).

North Wales Coast

Labour would dearly love to win back Clwyd West but the Conservative strongholds along the coast to the west of Rhyl are likely to come out strong. The new Aberconwy constituency will prove very interesting. Plaid are stronger in the southern parts like Betws y Coed, but the Conservatives are very strong in the most populated part which is Llandudno and Labour also have some support along the coast to the west. The corresponding seat’s held by Plaid in the Assembly but Labour hold the current Conwy seat which covers big parts of the new constituency (although incumbent Betty Williams won’t be standing again and boundary changes mean that Labour-strong Bangor isn’t in Aberconwy). It’s a seat all 3 parties want but both Labour and Plaid’s priorities are elsewhere while the Tories are very serious about it!

North East

It’s all Labour right now and if they have a really bad night they could face losing Wrexham. The Liberal Democrats are targeting the seat and that party often prove popular in university towns but Wrexham politics aren’t quite that simple; for instance there are 5 separate independent groupings on the council. It was also the first Welsh Assembly constituency to elect an independent back in 2003 (incumbent John Marek). The Conservatives might fancy their chances in Vale of Clwyd and Clwyd South (the latter of which being Martyn Jones’ constituency and he’s one of those standing down at the next election). Prestatyn (one of the primary population centres in the Vale) is a Conservative area and if the Tories can get out their base here they could be in for a big win.

Powys

Both the Powys seats are held by the Liberal Democrats. They’re interesting electorally: the further west you get (Machynlleth for instance in Montgomeryshire) the more liberal it seems to be. The Conservatives, though, are strong in the most eastern parts of the constituencies (in the villages around Welshpool for instance). The colourful Lembit Opik is the sitting MP in Montgomeryshire and his main challenger is the Conservative Glyn Davies. Plaid are in the mix in the constituency as well; especially in those western areas and a strong showing by them is probably more likely to hurt Lembit. Roger Williams’ Brecon and Radnor seat will probably be seen as safer by the Lib Dems but a strong showing by Conservatives in the more southern and eastern areas could provide an upset.

Ceredigion

A unique seat in that it’s the only Lib Dem/Plaid marginal. Most people will tell you Plaid are a shoe-in but the Lib Dems are confident of retaining the seat. Plaid’s base is the agriculture industry who have their favourite minister (Elin Jones) serving as the local AM, Plaid are also confident they’ll be able to get more student voters out next time in Aberystwyth. The seat will be won and lost in the southern towns – they’re more traditionally Conservative areas. The Lib Dems are banking on their “Tories can’t win here” strategy to win over these voters.

West Wales

The Conservatives will be confident of retaining Preseli Pembrokeshire and gaining Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire (they hold both seats in the Assembly and they don’t need a huge swing in Carms West). If you’ve been to Llanelli recently the Plaid stamp on the town in unmistakeable. It’s one of those seats they’d love to win and stand a strong chance of doing so (we’ve written a whole blog about Llanelli in the past and it’s certainly worth a read).

Swansea and around

A Labour stronghold if ever there was one! The Lib Dems will hope to replicate their 2005 success in Cardiff Central in Swansea West this time around. Alan Williams has been a very popular member in that seat for decades but even his majority was hit hard in 2005 and with him off, as well as his Assembly counterpart Andrew Davies, the Liberals could stand a real chance. The Conservatives will have half an eye on Bridgend and Gower. They saw quite tight Assembly races in 2007 but, truth be told, it’s a bit of a mountain for the Tories to climb.

Further East...

Vale of Glamorgan is one of the seats the Tories really need. David Cameron’s been there on his Cameron Direct tour and experienced Assembly Member Alun Cairnes is the candidate. It’s a constituency which has (almost always) stuck with the party of government – this could be Wales’ best example of a bellwether constituency. At the end of last year, Kim Howells announced he’d be standing down in Pontypridd (as is Jane Davidson his Assembly counterpart) which might mean the Lib Dems could be in with a chance there – a slim one nonetheless.

Cardiff

The Central and West constituencies are likely to stay the same (in the hands of the Lib Dems and Labour respectively). But in the North and South (and Penarth) the Tories are looking to make gains. In Cardiff North it was a very close race between Julie Morgan and Jonathan Morgan last time around but the other Jonathan (Jonathan Evans that is) could well do the job for the Tories in 2010. Alun Michael has a healthy majority in Cardiff South and Penarth but that’s not deterring the Conservatives who are going on national issues to attack Labour here. The development of Cardiff Bay in the past decade has seen a fair few young professionals moving to this constituency giving it a higher proportion of middle-class voters. This could well be one of Labour’s “big upsets”.

South East

No change? Newport and the Valleys are Labour strongholds and have been for years. They’re unlikely to see a change but Newport West might be worth watching, it’s one of those the Conservatives would like to win but don’t need to win. Monmouth and Blaenau Gwent are probably not going to go Labour anytime soon. Plaid would like to make a dent somewhere in this region (as they did in the early days of the Assembly) but they have bigger fish to fry in the north and west...

If I had to take an educated guess, I’d say Labour will come away with 21 seats out of 40 after the next election (they've currently got 29). I think the Lib Dems will also lose out, coming away with just 3 seats (down from 4). I’d give Plaid 5 (2 more than they have right now) and the Tories will be the big winners hitting double figures - I’d give them 10 (up from just 3).

It’s a tough call as there are so many interesting races here.

I have no idea how wide of the mark I’m going to be and it could all change before May – a week may be a long time, but a campaign is a lifetime in politics...

Dewi Tri

An open goal

2010-01-06T15:09:00.003Z

There's either something really clever going on or Ms Hewitt and Mr Hoon's campaign is just what it seems.

Already other parties are reacting (Eric Pickles, Chairman of the Conservative Party, could hardly contain himself on Sky News this lunchtime).

For a Welsh angle, Elfyn Llwyd isn't impressed at all:

"This petty internal squabbling amongst Labour MPs only emphasises how out of touch they are.

"With Wales fighting a severe recession, and many people continuing to lose their jobs, Labour’s priorities today are unsavoury to say the least.

"Meanwhile the Tories seem to have arrogantly assumed that the election is a forgone conclusion while Wales still bears the deep scars of previous Conservative governments.

"There is little choice between the two parties and both have proved they are incapable of defending Wales. Brown’s leadership battle means very little to Welsh communities. This government should be getting on with tackling the precarious state of the economy."

While the Liberal Democrats take a similar line.

Danny Alexander MP says:

"Labour has given up any hope of winning this election and given up on governing the country.

"Labour MPs are now in a desperate scrabble to save their own seats and minimise their defeat.

"People have no reason to vote for a party that’s failed to deliver fairness, failed to fix the rotten political system and failed on the environment. The only party to vote for in the next election if you want a fairer society is the Liberal Democrats.

"The country doesn’t need a secret a ballot to get rid of Gordon Brown, it needs a General Election."

There's been some speculation that might be coming sooner rather than later but there's hardly been a flurry of support for this coup so far...

Dewi Tri

It’s as if they want to lose...

2010-01-06T14:26:00.002Z

Today we have seen the Labour party once again going out of their way to shoot themselves squarely in the foot. Just when they were clawing their way back in the opinion polls, just when the bookies had been reducing the odds on a hung parliament, just when Conservative credentials were under fire and just when the air of competence was returning to the party they go and undermine it all by starting a mud-slinging session.

The move by Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt to reopen the Labour leadership issue and put Gordon Brown’s position in doubt cannot be helpful to the party as a whole. Things for Labour have been getting better (very very slowly I admit,) even today Brown had the better of Cameron and Clegg in PMQ’s, but instead of starting to build momentum Brown is once again on the defensive focusing on his own position as opposed to attacking the other parties.

The Conservatives must be loving it. The former cabinet Ministers have done their work for them, now there will be wall to wall coverage of the possible Coup giving the Tories a chance to escape the heat that was coming their way after their Marriage Tax debacle. It also gives them more ammunition to throw at Brown in the lead up to an election. This proposed secret ballot weakens the Prime Minister, and therefore the Labour party, just months before an election.

I wonder what Hoon and Hewitt’s end game is? Who do they have in mind to take over? Given that the election will be won and lost on the economy who do they think is better placed than Gordon Brown to win the economic argument for them? The letter also says that a ballot would unify the party, but does such a ballot really create a sense of unity? Or more importantly portray a unified party to the country?

Whatever happens next the Labour party will now have to waste energy infighting rather than doing other things like tackling recession and trying to win an election.

I have just heard on BBC News 24 the first call for an early election I suspect there will be a lot more throughout the day.

Sometimes something’s in politics baffle you – this move at this time is one of them.

You can read the letter here, maybe you’ll understand how Hoon and Hewitt thought this would help the Labour Party.

Dewi Un

What’s in those minutes?

2010-01-05T15:35:00.002Z

Recently a decision made by the information commissioner to disclose copies of minutes relating to the Cabinet Sub Committee on Devolution to Scotland and Wales was vetoed by Jack Straw. To put this into context it’s only the second time that the ministerial veto has been used to stop minutes becoming public knowledge. The only other time was relating to cabinet meeting in the run up to the Iraq war.

That just makes me wonder what must contained within those minutes? Why would Jack Straw bother to stop publication unless something was said and or done that is really juicy. The reasoning behind Mr Straw’s decision is that disclosure of the notes would be “damaging to the doctrine of collective responsibility” and whilst he felt that disclosure would ” improve the public’s understanding of the committee’s work and devolution issues” ultimately public interest was best served by non-disclosure. He also felt that the case was “exceptional” and so fell well within his remit and allowed him to veto.

If the case was “exceptional” then there must be some real juice tucked away in those minutes! Especially given that most MPs outside the nations find devolution a boring hum-drum issue, so something must have been said to make Jack Straw sit up, take notice and lock the minutes away.

It’s a decision that has frustrated some. Not least Christopher Graham the Information Commissioner himself who says in his report:

“Laying this report before is an indication of the Commissioner’s concern to ensure that the exercise of the veto does not go unnoticed by Parliament and, it is hoped, will serve to underline the Commissioner’s view that the exercise of the ministerial veto in any future case should be genuinely exceptional.”

Plaid Cymru are also annoyed with the decision, Elfyn Llwyd added:

“This must be deeply embarrassing for the Government and by refusing to publish suggests there must be some dynamite in those minutes. I cannot see how it is in the public interest to refuse to let the public see the process and thinking behind how the devolution settlement was put together...

It appears that we will be unable to discover what happened in the discussions on devolution in 1997, despite the Information Commissioner’s initial decision that the public interest in disclosure was greater than that in refusing publication.”

You can read the whole report here and make up your own mind as to whether or not the minutes should have been hidden or not.

It does make me wonder, what’s in those minutes?

Dewi Un

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda – Happy New Year

2010-01-04T11:20:00.001Z

First things first – all of us here at Politicscymru hope you all had a very happy Christmas and wish you a prosperous 2010.

Now to business. Back at work today busy trawling through the press releases that have gone unread over the past week. Carwyn Jones’ new year message was one such presser. Whilst containing nothing particularly groundbreaking the new First Minister had the following to say:

“2010 will see us looking to gain more powers for the Assembly to use for the benefit of the people of Wales” (Emphasis added)

So, is this the beginning of a new Welsh Labour line on the referendum? On its own probably not, but coupled with this statement from the new counsel-general it could be that Carwyn Jones is looking to make amends for his party’s recent flaky stance on the referendum date.

It’s a move that will no doubt help cement the ‘One Wales’ agreement, which has been on dodgy ground in recent months. Remember the deal was made between Rhodri and Ieuan not Carwyn so a change of stance on the referendum issue would no doubt help smooth the transition process, and appease any Plaid members who are still hankering for rebellion.

We’ll find out pretty quickly if Carwyn and his team are going to push for that Autumn referendum because they will need to start the ball rolling by the end of the month. Politically it makes perfect sense for Carwyn Jones to put his money where his mouth is. It can’t be worth risking the wrath of the opposition parties on this most contentious issue in his first few weeks in charge.

Whilst we sense a change in the air, no-one can be a 100% certain that the polcy has changed or is changing apart from Carwyn himself.

What we are certain of is that the clock ticking.

Dewi Un

Nadolig Llawen

2009-12-24T13:59:00.002Z

Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda i chi gyd!

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year to you all!

From / Oddi Wrth

Y Dewis

Bagpuss, acronyms and chocolate Cludo...

2009-12-23T13:15:00.005Z

Well our Assembly Members have been away from Cardiff Bay for a week or so now and thanks to glorious modern technology we can follow what they're up to!

Here's some highlights from Assembly Member's Twitter feeds (that you can follow @Politics_Cymru/AMsWhoTweet):

@bethanjenkins I won chocolate cludo! How chuffed am I?!!!!

@peterblackwales has enjoyed BBC4 documentary on Oliver Postgate. Bagpuss was meant to be marmalade coloured but dye went wrong. Who knew?

@JonMorganAM was strangely looking forward to going to the panto tonight!

@LeanneWood last (half day) at the office. Yipee!

@DarrenMillarAM Just realised that mince pies is an anagram of 'mice penis'. Very alarming given that I have consumed so many over the past few weeks!

@huwlewis thinks Merthyr looks like a Christmas card picture this morning

@peterblackwales has decided that it is time to put the Christmas decorations up

@DarrenMillarAM Snow, snow, snow, snow! Snow, snow, snow, snow! Lovely snow!

Merry Christmas everyone
Dewi Tri

Being left out is the best thing that could have happened to the nationalists

2009-12-22T11:55:00.002Z

I remember a few months ago we were saying how one of the most interesting things about the problems MPs were facing was how parties like Plaid hadn’t been able to capitalise on the misfortunes of their mainstream colleagues.

It’s because they were now lumped in with their mainstream colleagues. Plaid here in Wales and their sister party, the SNP in Scotland, are now parties of Government and can no longer count on picking up votes by being anti-(English) establishment.

But now our national broadcasters could seemingly have thrown them a bone!

They’ve been left out of those mainstream English debates that will have to debate all those issues that are devolved in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

The nationalist parties could now go back to their grassroots, back to their communities, and claim that they are once again the party of the people not of the establishment.

Why are Alex Salmond and Elfyn Llwyd kicking up such a fuss?

Couldn’t they say they’re not the same as everyone else now...

Dewi Tri

Kirsty WIlliams: One Year On

2009-12-22T11:36:00.002Z

A week may be a long time in politics but doesn't a year just fly by!!

Twelve months ago Kirsty Williams was elected the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the first woman to lead a party at the Assembly.

We went out to meet her in Ystradgynlais in her constituency to see how the year had gone and to look ahead to the General Election next year...

Y Dewis

Uh, what about us?

2009-12-21T19:14:00.003Z

Well Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are all (apparently) very excited about facing each other in a primetime TV debate but not everyone’s happy with the news.

No sooner had the news been announced than Elfyn Llwyd’s people had issued a press release stating their disapproval at being left out of the whole thing.

Mr LLwyd says:

"Plaid Cymru and the SNP have been key parties in Westminster for decades. By choosing to leave out the respective leaders of these parties from this highly publicised televised debate, it gives the three London parties an unfair advantage in this election."

All other minority parties are also being left out of the debate.

One might argue that if the purpose of these debates is to engage with the electorate then (quite literally) filling a stage with people in suits might not be the best remedy.

Another point that doesn’t seem to have been raised yet is the question of what exactly is going to be debated?? Baring in mind that certain policy areas (little things like health and education for instance) are devolved matters and this election will have no direct result on how money is spent in the NHS and in schools in Wales (and Scotland).

The complex British constitution isn’t easily explained or understood...it’ll be interesting to see how ITV, Sky and the BBC try to break down the barriers between politics and the public...

Dewi Tri

New Cabinet and a trip to Copenhagen

2009-12-21T11:59:00.002Z

Another video Podcast from the Dewis!

It's all about Carwyn Jones' new cabinet, the Copenhagen summit and the news that Kim Howells is set to stand down in Pontypridd.

(We recorded this last week and due to technical issues are only getting it up now)

Enjoy!!

Y Dewis

Devo-what?

2009-12-16T17:28:00.002Z

Anything strike you as odd about the following statement from Martyn Jones MP for Clwyd South?

"I'm concerned about the number of people with long-term conditions in my constituency who may be choosing to go without vital medicines... Gordon Brown was right to promise free prescriptions for people with long-term conditions, but he must now follow through and implement this promise as soon as possible."

I think that Mr Jones may have misunderstood just a little whose responsibility it is to act on such issues, given that the Labour lead Welsh Assembly Government have already legislated on the matter!

Correct me if I’m wrong but isn’t ‘free prescriptions’ one of Welsh Labour and the Welsh Assembly Governments marquee polices? Hasn’t Welsh Labour defended the policy over and over again, and lauded its success? Isn’t this a prime example of a WAG policy that appeals to the Labour grass roots and legitimises their claim to be the party of the people?

If so it seems a bit odd to me that Martyn Jones a Labour MP would have forgotten about it? Maybe he just simply misunderstood the current devolution settlement? He wouldn’t be the first and he probably won’t be the last.

Dewi Un

I need your clothes, your boots and your motorcycle... and some environment policies

2009-12-16T15:40:00.005Z

With the World’s eyes trained on Copenhagen the going has been tough for the leaders struggling to broker a worthwhile deal. However some have found the experience a bit more rewarding having had their efforts praised by none other than the Governor of California Arnold Schwarzenegger (aka Conan the Barbarian, The Terminator, Mr Freeze).

One such individual is our own environment minister Jane Davidson, whose been busy chairing meetings and having talks about the positive impact that regional and sub national governments can have in lowering carbon emissions.

So what has the Welsh Assembly Government actually pledged to do? Well it has made a commitment to reduce carbon emissions annually by 3% from 2011 onwards (in devolved areas of course). It has put aside £300 million to try and achieve this goal, whilst also putting nearly £250,000 in a pot to help areas of Uganda deal with climate change. So is this enough?

Jane Davidson clearly thinks so saying "It is clear from the commitments that regional governments across the world have already made that we are setting the pace on this agenda and hopefully our example will lead to a deal by the end of the week."

And so it would seem does Arnie, telling WAG officials to “Keep up the good work in your efforts to fight climate change”.

But are the WAG really ‘‘setting the pace?’’ Pressure groups are sceptical many of whom (like Oxfam Cymru) are calling for Carwyn Jones and his new cabinet to treble their commitment and pledge to cut emissions by 9%. Setting the pace? Maybe not then.

If regional governments like the WAG, whose efforts are being praised, aren’t even cutting the mustard, then what hope is there for a worthwhile global deal?

And doesn’t the mathematics of it all mean that in reality their efforts are a bit pointless if the Worlds big polluters (USA, China, India e.t.c) don’t vote for drastic change?

We wait with baited breath for the outcome of the Copenhagen talks on Friday, I wonder if the rest of the World will follow Wales’ (strong or weak - you decide) lead?

Hasta la vista, baby (sorry could not help myself!).

Dewi Un

So much to do...

2009-12-10T18:14:00.003Z

Let us know what you think his priorities should be.

Dewi Un

Carwyn Jones' Cabinet

2009-12-10T16:11:00.005Z

So we now know who's in and who's out. It's a fairly well shuffled pack on the Labour side.

Here's the team that will lead Wales:

First Minister - Carwyn Jones
Health - Edwina Hart
Business and Budget - Jane Hutt
Children, Education and Lifelong Learning - Leighton Andrews
Environment, Sustainability and Housing - Jane Davidson
Social Justice - Carl Sargeant
Skills (Deputy Minister) - Lesley Griffiths
Children (Deputy Minister) - Huw Lewis
Social Services (Deputy Minister)- Gwenda Thomas
Counsel General - John Griffiths
Chief Whip - Janice Gregory

The Plaid Ministers remain unchanged.

So what do we think? Exciting? Disappointing?

Dewi Tri

A Busy Week So Far

2009-12-09T18:59:00.002Z

The Dewis return to video!

(Can you tell we've got a new toy today?)

It's been a busy week so far and so we reflect on Rhodri Morgan's last day and that surprising news that Mr Asghar crossed the floor.

Y Dewis

A Dewi Meets Dai Lloyd

2009-12-09T12:46:00.004Z

Following our interview with Mohammad Asghar.

Dewi Un sat down with Dai Lloyd to find out Plaid Cymru's response to his colleague's defection to the Welsh Conservatives.

Y Dewis

Mohammad Asghar and a Dewi

2009-12-09T12:19:00.004Z

Well Mr Mohammad Asghar AM caused a bit of a stir yesterday!

We had the chance to sit down with him at the Assembly to ask him about his defection from Plaid to the Conservatives...

Y Dewis

Today of all days

2009-12-08T17:41:00.002Z

It’s been a busy day down the Senedd today; after the morning winds had calmed down we took some time out, had a cup of tea, and reflected on the day’s events.

Today was supposed to be all about Rhodri’s last question time and his last moments as First Minister and in all honesty it was. That’s what the record books will remember and by the close of play today that’s what was on the minds of those still milling around.

However the Welsh Conservatives did upset the applecart a little earlier with their shock announcement that caught all of us, including Plaid Cymru, off guard.

So why today? Considering the party had managed to keep the whole thing such a secret for some time the decision to announce this morning was obviously calculated. I assumed initially, and still believe, that this was a plan to steal some headlines and air time away from Rhodri and the Labour party. Think about it, the Conservatives must be fed up of all the coverage the Labour party have had over the past few months what with the election campaign and all. This was a great opportunity to share some of the limelight.

However whilst a defection is good news for the Conservatives, given the unresolved issues surrounding the defection (staffing issues e.t.c) and Oscar’s ability (or lack of) to communicate to camera, were the Conservatives were actually trying to bury the news a touch? After all instead of a full 3 minute piece on the news you were now more likely to simply get a 30 second clip...

It doesn’t really matter what their motives were I suppose the facts remain the same – but I thought it an interesting consideration and one you may like to ponder over a cup of tea yourselves.

Dewi Un

"The people of the South Wales region did not want a second Tory AM"

2009-12-08T12:58:00.001Z

Here's Plaid's response (in full) to Mohammad Asghar's defection:

The Leader of Plaid Cymru Ieuan Wyn Jones AM has responded with surprise and disappointment to the news that Mohammad Asghar, the Assembly Member for South Wales East has left Plaid Cymru to join the Conservative group in the Assembly.

Mr Asghar was elected to represent the South Wales East region on behalf of Plaid Cymru in 2007. The Plaid Leader Ieuan Wyn Jones said:

“We very much regret Mohammad Asghar’s decision and it comes as a shock to members both of the Plaid Cymru group and the wider party. We were particularly surprised to hear of this news from the media. We were very proud of the fact that in campaigning hard for Mohammad Asghar’s election in 2007 that Plaid Cymru ensured the first ever Assembly Member from the black minority ethnic community. It is has come as a shock that he has now decided that he shares the same values as those held by the Conservative and Unionist party.”

The Chair of the Plaid Cymru group Dai Lloyd said:

“We now call on Mohammad Asghar to take the honourable decision to resign his seat as a Plaid Cymru AM. The people of the South Wales region did not want a second Tory AM to represent the area – they elected a Plaid Cymru AM. Mr Asghar does not have the political mandate to sit in the Assembly as a Conservative member for the South East.”

Dewi Tri

Mohammad Asghar Crosses the Floor!

2009-12-08T11:19:00.005Z

The lobby were in for a huge surprise at this morning's Tory briefing.

The entire Tory group (led by Nick Bourne and Cheryl Gillan) packed out the media room too announce that Plaid Cymru AM Mohammad Asghar would be joining their group for the remainder of the Assembly.

He says his feelings jar more and more with his Plaid party who selected him as a list member for the 2007 Assembly Election in South East Wales...

He hasn't told Ieuan Wyn Jones yet.

Expect a day of high drama in Cardiff Bay...

Dewi Tri

ADD: Believe it or not even though Mohammad Asghar is a list member for Plaid Cymru in South East Wales he is allowed to switch parties.

Once a member is elected, he or she is elected but if he was to stand down Plaid would be allowed to nominate the successor to that seat.

On an interesting note, apparently Nick Ramsey was spotted moving out of his office late last night possibly to make way for their party’s latest addition...

Remember the one about the vegetarian agriculture minister?

2009-12-07T12:29:00.002Z

On Saturday Labour elected Christine Gwyther to be their candidate for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr in the general election. The former Assembly Member for Carmarthen West and South Pembroke has been out of frontline politics since 2007 and is now ready for her comeback.

An AM for 8 years she was controversially appointed minister for agriculture by Alun Michael despite the fact she was a vegetarian. With Wales being in the middle of a beef crisis at the time opposition parties and farming unions weren’t best pleased to say the least. When Rhodri took over the reins she was replaced by the now First Minister in waiting Carwyn Jones, ironically on the eve of the Royal Welsh show.

The selection of Gwyther shows that the Labour Party are beefing up their efforts in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr. Despite her sketchy record as minister for agriculture Christine Gwyther has been an elected politician for some time and is an experienced campaigner. The Labour party in the area must be hoping that they can take advantage of Adam Price’s decision to step down and the selection of an old head must be an attempt to counter Plaid’s candidate Jonathan Edwards.

It will be interesting what impact Chrisitne Gwyther will make in the seat, with a big majority to overturn is she simply a lame duck?

Dewi Un

UPDTAE 16:45

Having just spoken to a local Labour party insider it may well be that it was the lack of competition that swung the vote for Christine Gwyther and not some grand plan emphasising experience!

This is a voice mail message left by one of her competitors to a 19 year old brass band member who pulled out of a concert (granted it was in Lybia). It's quite infamous by now so you may remember it.

The week ahead...

2009-12-07T11:50:00.001Z

It’s a big week for Welsh politics.

One First Minister leaves and a new one gets started (although not at the same time so we will be First Ministerless for a chunk of the week too).

With so much procedure and protocol I just thought I’d run through what’s going to happen (as far as we know):

Tuesday

Rhodri Morgan holds his last ever First Minister’s Question time in the chamber at 1.30pm (I wonder how sad he will be to see an end to them?)

There’ll be a debate on the budget late tomorrow afternoon (which might be finished by 5.30pm-ish – but Plenary session timings are not an exact science...)

Rhodri Morgan will send off an email to Buckingham Palace (who have been warned to expect it). He will cease to be First Minister when the Queen accepts his resignation

Wednesday

Providing Her Majesty checks her emails on Tuesday night...

The Presiding Officer will call a vote in Plenary after Ministerial questions (so around 2.30pm...probably closer to 3pm). The only thing we don’t know yet is whether or not the Tories and Lib Dems will try to vote down Carwyn Jones, abstain from the vote or (unlikely but you never know) vote for him...

Dafydd El gives the Queen a ring afterwards to let her know the outcome

The Queen invites Carwyn Jones to be Welsh First Minister. He becomes First Minister if/when he accepts but can’t exercise the duties of the office until he’s sworn in which won’t happen until...

Thursday

Carwyn Jones sworn in as new First Minister by Wales’ most senior Judge who’s called Nigel Davies (as well as any new cabinet members who Carwyn can’t actually nominate until he’s taken the oath himself)

And then a whole new chapter begins...ish...

Dewi Tri

Andrew Davies - Jumped or Pushed?

2009-12-03T12:34:00.001Z

Finance and Public Services Delivery Minister Andrew Davies has announced today that he is to stand down as an AM at the next Assembly Election. The man behind Edwina Harts campaign said that “it is time for me to have a greater balance and change of pace in my life and to seek out new challenges.”

The question we’re asking is did he jump before he was pushed? We know that Andrew Davies isn’t Carwyn Jones’ biggest fan, recently he described his role in the Cabinet as “semi-detached”. We also know that Carwyn will be looking to promote some of his supporters into the cabinet (Leighton Andrews anyone?) and so it may be that the prospect of being demoted to a backbench AM was something he didn’t fancy.

The news will also come as a bit of a kick in the teeth to Carwyn Jones who had been quite successful in pushing his theme of post election party unity. I wonder if this announcement will take some of the gloss off Tuesday’s events? In saying that, this does make his reshuffle a little easier, he can now claim that because Andrew Davies is stepping down in 2011 he had to replace him in the cabinet, and it therefore had nothing to do with their frosty relationship (but such a strategy could leave him in hot water because of Jane Davidson).

Today’s news offers a whole host of implications for the upcoming reshuffle and is likely to spawn several conspiracy theories, it could just be that Andrew Davies fancied a change!
His decision to step down has been on the cards for a while according to some, but others have been caught by surprise. As late as last night some Plaid Cymru sources had been telling the Western Mail that Carwyn Jones should keep Andrew Davies in the Cabinet. I doubt they’ll be saying that today. You can read more about that here.

Andrew Davies will leave behind a Swansea West constituency that is high on the Liberal Democrats hit list, which whilst not making everyone quake in fear should give the Labour party some cause for concern. The Liberals have steadily increased their council representation in Swansea and have a strong operation in the area.

The list of AMs stepping down at the next election is growing almost monthly, which means that whatever the outcome politically there will bve a host of new faces come 2011.

Dewi Un

P.S a quick plug: If you’re not already following us on Twitter you should be! Here’s the link take a look to see who broke the news first...

Le Cabinet

2009-12-02T13:41:00.002Z

So now for a bit of rampant speculation. Here’s my guess as to the makeup of Carwyn’s Cabinet.

Here’s what it looks like Now:

First Minister: Rhodri Morgan
Deputy and Economy and Transport: Ieuan Wyn Jones
Environment, Sustainability and Housing: Jane Davidson
Finance and Public Service Delivery: Andrew Davies
Social Justice and Local Government: Dr Brian Gibbons
Health and Social Services: Edwina Hart
Children Education Lifelong Learning and Skills: Jane Hutt
Heritage: Alun Ffred Jones
Counsel General: Carwyn Jones
Rural Affairs: Elin Jones

I have no basis for the following breakdown just some gossip and backrooms whispers. Think of it as a bit of fun ( I need to get out more!!)

First Minister: Carwyn Jones (New)
Deputy and Economy and Transport: Ieuan Wyn Jones
Environment, Sustainability and Housing: Jane Davidson
Finance and Public Service Delivery: Leighton Andrews (New)
Social Justice and Local Government: John Griffiths (New)
Health and Social Services: Edwina Hart
Children Education Lifelong Learning and Skills: Huw Lewis (New)
Heritage: Alun Ffred Jones
Counsel General: Removed (or still done by Carwyn / unelected official)
Rural Affairs: Elin Jones

John Griffiths and Huw Lewis could easily be the other way around, to be fair most of the list could be different!

There’s my largely uneducated punt – agree???

Dewi Un

Carwyn Who?

2009-12-02T13:11:00.003Z

The two remaining Dewis have just spent 5 minutes having a flick through the UK’s national press to find no mentions of Carwyn Jones’ election.

Not one.

Will making a splash on the front page of the Western Mail really be enough to let the people of Wales know who he is? (Let alone letting them know what he wants to do?)

Dewi Tri

PS interesting thoughts from Michael White on Good Morning Wales this morning (2 hours 55 minutes in on iPlayer)
PPS if we missed the story do let us know!

In limbo?

2009-12-02T10:48:00.000Z

It’s down to work for Mr Jones, First Minister-elect, then!

Last night he wouldn’t be drawn on who would be in his cabinet and whatever rumours we’ve heard so far would appear to be just that.

What is for sure is for the next few weeks none of the other Assembly Members will really know what to do with themselves. They’re there to hold the Assembly Government to account, but the Assembly Government is about to be reshuffled (how significantly it’s hard to tell) and until all the pieces fall into place not everyone’s going to know where they stand.

There’s the budget to keep them somewhat busy. And Carwyn Jones’ cabinet choices.

But as was apparent from the lobby briefings yesterday, those two stories (the latter in particular) are pretty much going to dominate Cardiff Bay up until Christmas.

We’ll not see business-as-usual until the new year.

Dewi Tri

It's Carwyn after all...

2009-12-01T21:08:00.003Z

Months of speculation, weeks of campaigning and days of guessing and here we are, finally having confirmation that Carwyn Jones has been elected as the next leader of the Welsh Labour party.

Whilst the result wasn’t surprising the scale of his victory certainly was. The man who is now first minister elect received 51% of the first round vote, winning outright and removing the need to worry about second preference votes.

So what’s next? Well there are 2 key questions I suppose:

1) What shape will the cabinet now take? Who’s in, who’s out?
2) What’s his stance on an autumn referendum?

In his interviews post result Carwyn batted all these contentious issues aside and instead focused on the unifying effect of the election. All three candidates expressed their belief that this is now a Labour party united and ready to take the fight to the Tories et al come May/June.

The speculation is now rife as to the future of many things – but for tonight let’s just leave it at the facts.

Carwyn Jones - 51.98 %
Edwina Hart - 29.19 %
Huw Lewis - 18.84 %

Dewi Un

Round 2?

2009-11-30T15:28:00.003Z

Remember the Affordable Housing LCO? It caused a considerable fuss under scrutiny from the Welsh Affairs Select Committee earlier this year in particular due to its desire to transfer power on council tenant’s right to buy their homes from Westminster to the Assembly before bring killed off.

This morning the Deputy Minister for Housing, Jocelyn Davies, published its successor: the Sustainable Homes LCO.

The difference?

Well this one’s longer and has considerably broader scope. In fact the only this it has in common with the Affordable Housing LCO is Matter 11.5 which would transfer the legislative competence to "enable the National Assembly, if it so wished, to replace the current Right to Buy scheme with improved and updated schemes".

So it would give the Welsh Assembly the power to abolish right to buy if it wanted to.

But this might not cause quite such a stir this time around. Why? The WASC’s complaint was, basically, that the powers asked for in the Affordable Housing LCO were too specific and so they ended up scrutinising the laws the Assembly could make instead of asking whether or not they should get the powers to make them. This time that job should be left to Assembly Members if and when the LCO comes into force.

How far it will get on its journey is hard to say because the General Election round the corner could put things on hold just a little bit...

Dewi Tri

PS to learn more about the process of transferring powers to the Welsh Assembly, see my colleague's very helpful diagram...

What happens after the next election?

2009-11-30T14:52:00.003Z

Ever wondered what happens to LCOs currently under scrutiny after the next election?

Does the Welsh affairs select commitee in Westminster have start their deliberations all over again?

Well this is what we've been told happens:

"If Parliament is dissolved, the process of approving LCOs will be interrupted until after the new Parliament is opened. Following a general election, it will be the decision of the newly-elected UK government as to how proceed with any LCOs which have already begun or completed the process of pre-legislative scrutiny. If the government indicates its intention to proceed with the process, it will be up to any new Welsh Affairs Committee (or Lords Constitution Committee) as to how to deal with any proposed LCOs which were already under consideration in the previous Parliament."

So essentially it's up to whoever forms the new government.

It's therefore not beyond the realms of possibility that there could be changes in committe membership - which will surely mean that those hoping to see their LCOs this side of next christmas are unlikely to get their way.

Dewi Un

Jonathan Edwards takes Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

2009-11-27T16:44:00.001Z

Well dear readers, I hate to be smug but, as I rightly predicted on this very blog some time ago, Jonathan Edwards has been selected by Plaid Cymru members to succeed Adam Price.

Roughly 9.30pm last night the man from Ammanford won the ballot, securing the required number of votes in the first round of voting.

Having interviewed him today – it’s apparent that party members have chosen the candidate who is most likely to be able to mirror Adam Price’s success. His politics and background are very similar to the current incumbents, and their close relationship is something that is likely to endear him to the local electorate.

It will be interesting to see now much of Price’s majority remains at the next election – with some suspicious that local people vote for him as an individual as opposed to Plaid as a party.

Jonathan Edwards isn’t worried about that though pointing to Rhodri Glyn’s large Assembly majority as reason to believe that the parties appeal is strong in the area.

It will be a busy 6 months for him with a general election round the corner, but he didn’t seem too daunted today, in fact it was clear that he is looking forward to the challenge.

Dewi Un

Barnett: What the Tories say...

2009-11-27T10:45:00.002Z

The Barnett formula is not popular.

Nor is it fair according to Gerry Holtham who issued a report on the subject back in July. The formula is based on population and not on the age of that population or the levels of poverty amongst that population.

Peter Hain says it’s worked alright until now but accepts that Wales could lose out in the future and to make sure that doesn't happen he’s said (if Labour win the next General Election) come Budget time the Government will pay special attention to Wales and “take action if appropriate”.

It’s been widely criticised (although not, I should say, by Gerry Holtham).

Of course this won’t be Peter Hain’s problem if Labour lose next year’s General Election – the decision on how to deal with Barnett could then be down to the Conservatives.

Here’s what their Wales spokesperson, Cheryl Gillan, had to say in full yesterday:

“Typically, this is a vague promise to do something in the future.

“In this very statement the Government reveals they don’t expect further convergence to happen in the coming years.

”This is a nothing statement, which is more about electioneering than securing the future financing of Wales.”

Call me a cynic but it doesn’t look like Barnett is going anywhere anytime soon...

Dewi Tri

Pawb a’i Farn – or is it?

2009-11-25T16:30:00.002Z

Pawb a’i farn – is the BBC’s Welsh language equivalent of Question Time. Roughly translated it means “Everyone and their opinions” but according to the Welsh Conservatives that title may be far from accurate.

If you haven’t seen it – the programme works much in the same way as QT. An invited panel (that represents varying positions on the political scale) answer questions and respond to comments posed by an audience of roughly sixty people. The show travels around Wales from Ammanford to Anglesey talking about a range of issues and topics.

Last week’s edition came from the Senedd building Cardiff Bay, and as a fan of the programme I jumped at the chance to sit in the audience. A free buffet and a lively debate later the set lights turned off and I left for home content with a fun couple of hours.

Alun Cairns, it seems didn’t enjoy his evening as much as I did. We’ve heard this week that Nick Bourne and Alun Cairns are unhappy at his treatment on last week’s programme. It would appear that the Conservatives are worried that the programme audience didn’t represent “Everyone” as the title of the show suggests, they feel the audience was rather one sided.

Nothing official has been said or done by the Conservatives to complain yet, but we understand that Alun Cairns is “considering his options...” at the moment and may take the matter “further”.

Intrigued? Does he get an unfair ride? Make up your own mind, watch it back here

Dewi Un

He Will Not Veto!

2009-11-25T16:11:00.002Z

Well Peter Hain says he's not going to veto a referendum (which means Labour and the Tories seem to be on the same page)...

He’s just told Plenary: "If I am the Secretary of State in receipt of an Assembly request to call a referendum, I would not veto that request."

It appears he has actually been convinced by the All Wales convention report!

But he still seems to think that the "new system is starting to work and is starting to work well."

It’s not an unequivocal show of support – but it clears things up a bit!

So I guess the ball is now fully in the court of the new Labour leader. If that new leader is Edwina Hart it seems unclear if she will move as quickly as Plaid might like. Today her response has popped up on her campaign site, it says: "Our focus will be on testing public readiness to support such a vote."

(I thought that was what the All Wales Convention was all about.)

Dewi Tri

Clear as Mud

2009-11-25T10:38:00.001Z

So what is Welsh Labour’s stance on the timing of a referendum? Well if you read this statement sent out yesterday lunchtime by Peter Hain, Rhodri Morgan and Gary Owen (Welsh Labour Chair) it seems obvious.

“ Our internal policy process has already begun: Welsh Labour’s Welsh Joint Policy Committee has met, prioritised the need to campaign for a General Election victory, and agreed to start considering the All Wales Convention report in detail as a prelude to stepping-up wider Party consultation with AMs and MPs, councillors, trade unionists and members as soon as the General Election is over.“

Holding on this long would make it difficult to foresee a referendum before the next Assembly elections in 2011, let alone a referendum in 2010, and in particular the Autumn of 2010 which is the favoured option of the opposition (and Plaid Cymru)

But wait – fast forward a couple of hours, in which Rhodri Morgan took a battering in Plenary, the One Wales coalition started creaking and scores of angry AMs and advisors were pacing up and down the Senedd and we have a different picture.

Another joint statement – this time by Rhodri and Ieuan Wyn Jones reading:

“All options for the timing of a referendum remain open... nothing has been ruled in or ruled out, including, if it proved practical, a referendum in the autumn”

So what is the stance of Welsh Labour? If they want to wait until after an election before making any moves then the above statement is a falsehood – because they wouldn’t have the requisite time, which means they are ruling an Autumn referendum out. So the question remains, do they want to wait until after a general election or not?

Peter Hain is talking to Assembly today so hopefully things will be far clearer soon - or alternatively they could stay just as they are, clear as mud.

Dewi Un

The Debate: Results

2009-11-13T10:52:00.005Z

There I was last night popcorn in one hand, oversized soft drink in the other eagerly anticipating the contest between the three people vying to become Wales’ next First Minister. Aside from the cries of “get a life” from my housemates and girlfriend I must say I quite enjoyed the programme despite the candidates rehearsed answers to some of the questions.

So who came out on top? Well I think it was a pretty close run thing. There’s not all that much to separate the three on policy (bar a couple of notable exceptions), there was a lot of “well I agree with a lot of what Carwyn / Edwina / Huw said there but can I just add...” so I think the decision will come down to style and personality.

So what of their style – Huw seemed relaxed, didn’t read from notes and came across as the most down to Earth. He did however fail to deal in specifics and generalised a lot. His performance last night wouldn’t have done him any harm but it’s fair to say that he lacked that aura of a First Minister – a nice, well meaning, idealistic politician – yes. First Minister? Probably not.

Edwina Hart has warmed somewhat to the camera’s over the duration of the contest. She has tried and been fairly successful I think at shedding her traditional grouchy image and showed some wit and humour in places last night. She did fidget with her pen a great deal and read a lot from (what I assume to be) pre-prepared notes. Mrs Hart did however tackle the questions asked (bar the one on health) fairly directly and didn’t go off on one without referring to the original question too much. She wasn’t afraid to stick her neck out and disagree with the questioners position and did receive the most applause from the audience.

Carwyn seemed the most composed of the three, as you’d expect from an ex-barrister with more public speaking experience. He didn’t rely on notes too much (although there were definitely a few pre-prepped tid bits in there). He is evidently comfortable in front of the camera’s and probably quite enjoyed the experience. But was he too safe? Was he too boring? Was he too much like the politicians that the public have turned against? With the Labour party needing an almighty great big rocket up their backsides before this upcoming election are his ‘safe pair of hands’ likely to provide it?

So there we are, on balance I think Carwyn Jones shaded it – but the other two by no means disgraces themselves. And I'm sure that their camps will disagree but there we go!

I do sometimes wish that they weren’t all so nice to each and really had a go at one another –I enjoyed last night but my housemates and better half who were forced to watch alongside me found it all rather bland. Not at all like the West Wing they said....

What did you think? If you're a Labour member who are you voting for and why?

Dewi Un

“Clinging pathetically to some shred of welsh culture”

2009-11-11T15:56:00.003Z

Firstly dear readers – my sincerest apologies for the lack of blogging over the past few weeks. Things have changed a lot in PC HQ which has held us away from our respective keyboards.

Last week I stumbled across a programme that inspired me to get back into the swing of things.
Called Cymru Hywel Williams this programme takes a look back at Welsh history and not only questions the future of Wales as a nation, but questions the very concept of today’s Wales as a nation. It’s an interesting watch you can see it (with subtitles) here.

Hywel Williams argues that historically Wales has preferred to integrate with the English way of life rather than try to stand on its own two feet. He argues that since the age of Henry Tudor the Welsh have chosen to accept throwaway gifts from the English (like a Welsh language Bible, S4C and the Senedd) rather than stand up for itself as a nation. During this first episode of a series of six Hywel Williams claims that this weakness is born from an obsession with culture, which has led to the Nation’s loyalty being bought by the English.

Wales is often seen as a country full of radical thinkers and socialists fighting for the greater good. A nonsense according to Mr Williams who believes that support in Wales for the great socialist causes (Miners Strike etc) came from an inner guilt, and not from an underlying belief in equality and justice.

According to the historian Wales is fixated with the legends and fairytales of old and oblivious to its current lack of leaders, leadership and direction. Whilst other fledgling nations have fought for freedom and self determination, ours has chosen to fight for by-lingual signs whilst also standing by to watch the aristocracy reassert their right over Wales (Prince Charles’s crowning and The Queen opening the Senedd are used as examples).

So how much truth is there in this damning assessment of our Country? Are we just “clinging pathetically to some shred of welsh culture”?

Personally I think there is some merit in Hywel Williams’ logic – but I also feel that his conclusions are overly pessimistic. I also feel that his findings are representative of his background.

I was struck that not once during the episode did Hywel Willliams balance his argument with reference to the undoubted pride that the people of Wales have in being Welsh. What ‘being Welsh’ constitutes differs from person to person – but anecdotal evidence tell us that there is a ferocious passion here to the concept of ‘being Welsh’. Just take a look at Cardiff on a match day, or the Welsh viewing figures for Gavin and Stacey. Doesn’t this pride account for something?

I was also struck that a he chose not to balance his piece with reference to some of Wales most radical thinkers – people who have fought for equality and social justice – people like Aneurin Bevan and the scores of community development workers and voluntary organisations who’s (often radical) work goes unnoticed.

I don’t know what to make of this programme, I can’t decide whether I liked it or not, but I can tell you one thing it’s certainly got the little grey cells working!

Your thoughts are welcomed and today (as ever) actively encouraged!

Dewi Un

The Welsh Grand Committee does the Welsh language LCO

2009-10-14T16:31:00.002+01:00

I have now decided that my behaviour today has proven my commitment to covering Welsh politics. Whilst the majority of my peers have been (apart from those in more stable employment) sunning themselves, shopping or going to the gym I have been watching the Welsh Grand Committee on Parliament TV. Yes I know I’m the height of cool.

These hours spent watching and Twittering (granted not as often during the afternoon session) has taught me several things about the scrutiny of LCOs.

It’s well documented on this website that during my time in university I spent many a Friday morning learning about the GOWA 2006 – its scope and powers and therefore the LCO process. What I learnt today is that the members of Parliament clearly have not interpreted the Act as my lecturers had. Granted THIS LCO is a special case, however what I saw today was the process of minutiae scrutiny (and even a request to see a draft measure before passing the LCO), as opposed to a broader approach that looked purely at the legality of the LCO.

My (along with lecturers / classmates) interpretation of the GOWA is that it’s the Assembly’s role to make the measures and it’s the Welsh MPs role to transfer the powers but only if they fall within the remit of the above mentioned act. We have known for some time now that this isn’t the approach that the Welsh MPs appear to be taking, or is it?

Several times during today’s debate’s the MPs seemed confused themselves as to what exactly they were talking about, and several times some MPs had to remind others that it was not their place to discuss what would be included in a measure but instead what was included in the LCO. Confused? Some of them certainly seemed to be.

My conclusion after watching today’s proceedings:

Someone somewhere surely needs to clarify the role of the Welsh MPs with regards to LCOs.

Are they essentially scrutinising future measures and therefore looking at LCOs to do exactly what they say on the tin?

Or are they (as I initially interpreted) looking at whether or not the LCO transfers powers that the Assembly shouldn’t have legally ? And therefore leaving the Assembly do the close scrutiny at the measure stage.

Either way - someone somewhere (for my sanity if nothing else) needs to decide or expect to see this confusion continue.

Dewi Un

P.S Great updates on Twitter from David Cornock, Nick Speed et al

MPs Hart Labour

2009-10-12T14:25:00.003+01:00

Today we’ve found out that Edwina Hart’s campaign has been boosted with the support of Paul Murphy MP and Don Touhig MP – as one tweet put it, two for the price of one.

Now have I missed something somewhere? I’m sure that all the talk to this point has been that whilst Edwina Hart is popular with the trade unionists and some AMs, her campaign would likely splutter due to a lack of support from MPs. Today’s news surely means that this analysis is flawed?

Paul Murphy and Don Touhig are some of the most senior Labour MPs and the most anti-devolution. If they support Edwina Hart’s campaign then surely many more MPs will follow? Edwina Hart is seen as a radical and the most pro-devolution of the three candidates – so if Don and Paul have ignored their natural opposition to these positions, and backed the AM from Gower, then maybe MPs are not as anti Edwina as we have been led to believe?

If this is the case and MPs are dancing to Edwina Hart’s tune then surely she must become the front runner?

Ladbrokes latest on Welsh First Minister race has it as:

Jones 4/6, Hart 5/2, Lewis 7/2

So Carwyn Jones is in the lead for now – but if more MPs start harting Labour then I suspect the odds will change.

Dewi Un

Podcast #2.2: The Importance of Being Seen

2009-10-08T19:42:00.004+01:00

The Podcast returns with the best quiz ever (for Dewi Tri)...

We're also talking about the Labour leadership, who's got the snaziest website and how much of a difference that really makes??

Dewi Tri's also been along to the Topping Out of the new Assembly building at Llandudno Junction with Mr Rhodri Morgan so will this help public relations up north??

All that, fun and banter in our new look Politics Cymru Podcast.

Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - not in the bag?

2009-10-07T17:43:00.001+01:00

So we now know pretty much who the runners and riders are not only in the Labour leadership race, but in the race for selection in Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr. What is seen by many as a safe Plaid seat (I’ll come on to this later) sounds like an ideal place for a Plaid candidate to stand.

The big guns to watch out for: Angharad Mair and Jonathan Edwards, I expect the race to effectively come down to these two, and I expect the winner to be pretty pleased. How often does a safe seat come up for grabs months before an election? Or is it a safe seat?

The facts are that Adam Price managed to take the traditionally Labour seat in 2001 and extended his majority from 2,590 to 6,718 in 2005. Adam Price is a local boy who went to school locally and whose parents live locally. Given the boundary changes in 1997 this local link becomes far more important. Why’s that then? Well now Ammanford and Llandeilo are the two biggest towns / population centres in the constituency and both are fairly intimate places – where mostly everyone knows pretty much everyone else, so local links and empathy for local issues become very important here. An absence of this cost the Labour campaign dearly in 2005 where the candidate was seen to have been parachuted in from London.

The constituency has a strong Labour tradition, Plaid managed to win the seat in 2001 because of a combination of a message that was more left wing than the Labour Party and a candidate with strong local roots who was brought up in the area (plus aforementioned boundary changes).

Coming from Glanamman myself I’ve spent some time talking to locals gathering their opinions. My findings are: There is not necessarily a loyalty to Plaid Cymru here, there is however a loyalty to Adam Price.

My point is - this is not Meirionnydd. There is no definite / concrete affiliation with Plaid Cymru here.

All of which means that Carmarthen East and Dinefwr could be up for grabs - making the selection of a candidate for Plaid Cymru all the more important. Angharad Mair, I am told, may well alienate the voters who feel, just as they did with Ross Hendry in 2005, that she has been parachuted in.

However with Labour’s inner party workings in Wales a mess, and their election coffers bare, it may be that they just don’t have the cash to support a push out West – which makes this entire article rather academic – so I suppose in classic Politics Cymru style, we shall have to wait and see....

Dewi Un

Campaign Website Review

2009-10-05T15:27:00.003+01:00

It would appear Huw Lewis is slightly behind the times...I can’t find a campaign website for him.

Carwyn Jones (who technically doesn’t launch his campaign until tonight) has gone for a Wordpress blog with 1 post to date and different sections including ‘Carwyn’ and ‘Ministerial Record’...sounds like gripping stuff.

Edwina Hart has what is quite a stylish website complete with logos and catchphrases and everything!

Based purely on websites I know who I’d vote for...of course there’s much more to these campaigns than looking good!

Dewi Tri

ADD: Lewis4Labour is now online and Huw Lewis is on Twitter already! D3

Could this be what Wales look like after the next election?

2009-10-03T11:28:00.003+01:00

Vaughan Roderick’s been blogging this morning on the Welsh results for the annual Politics Home survey of marginal constituencies.

Wales looking very interesting indeed and according to the index would see a major resurgence for the Conservatives who would take Aberconwy, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Gower, Newport West, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan…

Ouch.

It also sees Plaid making most of the gains they’d want to make.

Here's a summary of those Welsh marginals:

Aberconwy	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Arfon	Labour	PC GAIN
Brecon and Radnorshire	Lib Dem	Lib Dem HOLD
Bridgend	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Cardiff North	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Cardiff West	Labour	Labour HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembs	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Ceredigion	Lib Dem	PC GAIN
Clwyd South	Labour	Labour HOLD
Clwyd West	Conservative	Conservative HOLD
Delyn	Labour	Labour HOLD
Gower	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Llanelli	Labour	Labour HOLD
Newport West	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Conservative	Conservative HOLD
Vale of Clwyd	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Vale of Glamorgan	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Ynys Mon	Labour	PC GAIN

If, like me, you can imagine no better way to spend your weekend take a look at all the findings here.

Dewi Tri

Do we need a North Wales candidate?

2009-10-02T13:11:00.002+01:00

BANG! That’s the starting gun being fired on the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan.

But it strikes me that all the candidates (so far) are all based along the M4 route:- Edwina from Gower, Carwyn from Bridgend and Huw from Merthyr.

Three places that feel very far away from those of us based along the A55…

Would a candidate from the north perhaps offer something different to the debate?

Dewi Tri

Podcast #2.1: The Next Generation

2009-10-01T20:23:00.004+01:00

We're back! New Podcast! New jingle! But we are a Dewi down...swings and roundabouts!

And is there any better week to be back?

Rhodri Morgan has stepped down - but what legacy does he leave and who will be his successor?

We've also got our new north/south feature and the quiz is back.

Let us know what you think -- as far as we're concerned it's very good to be back!

Having trouble listening? Click here
Subscribe with iTunes

Hwyl Fawr Rhodri

2009-10-01T15:37:00.000+01:00

So Rhodri’s finally gone and done it – announced that he’s standing down as First Minister, with his intention to leave the job after the details of the budget have been hammered out (roughly December the 8th).

It will be a nigh on impossible job to fill his sizeable shoes, but those who are feeling the urge to try are, as we speak, preparing for battle.

Rhodri’s well respected by his colleagues, well liked by the Welsh public and feared by opposition politicians, to be one of those things is an achievement, to be all three is truly remarkable. His enthusiasm for Wales and for devolution has arguably held the project together for the last 10 years especially in the dark early days when the Assembly was floundering around looking for something to do. It is because of Rhodri that the Assembly has been normalised and accepted in the minds of the Welsh public – only a politician of his stature (with an approval rating that U.S Presidents would drool over) could have achieved that.

Of course no-one’s perfect. During the last few years under Rhodri’s leadership the Labour Party’s popularity in Wales has plummeted – leading to that disastrous European election result in June. Some will also criticise the lack of progress made on the Parliament front and look at the still frosty relationship between the Senedd and Welsh MPs.

However whatever your personal opinion of Rhodri’s politics it’s difficult to challenge his passion for Wales and desire to better the lives of those of us who live here. He has almost singlehandedly brought credibility to the Assembly – through his huge brain and common touch.

Today is a momentous occasion for devolution, and now with its champion leaving the front lines for good hanging up his sword and shield, will devolution cope?

Dewi Un

Get on with it!

2009-09-28T15:08:00.003+01:00

Is anyone else getting a little tired of this continued posturing from Rhodri Morgan? Will he, wont he, will he, wont he, over and over again. From a purely selfish perspective I’m fed up of explaining to friends why he has yet to announce his departure date, “but I thought you said he was retiring?” Yes I did say that but...

Away from my selfish desire for closure surely Rhodri is now doing more harm than good? How can the Labour Party here in Wales start planning a coherent message for the electorate if they don’t know who will be at the helm? If they have a next step to take then they should surely hurry up and get on with it lest be caught mid step. I understand that Rhodri may not have wanted to Grandstand Gordon at the Conference so I will give him some leeway but my goodwill is fast running out.

There has been a lot of talk regarding who will take over the reigns – I won’t go into much depth about the likely candidates here (there will be plenty of time for that when he does eventually announce) – but none of them are what you would describe as household names.

Whilst having dinner at Pizza Express last Friday (the dough balls there are exquisite) I tried a little social experiment. How many people around the table had ever heard of Huw, Carwyn and Edwina? The answer: not many, and those sharing the dough balls are good examples of the type of voters that all the parties target election time: floating voters, who care more about policy than politics. These are the type of voters that swing elections – you know your ‘Middle England’ voters -the ones that turned to Labour in 1997.

Now if they wouldn’t know Edwina / Huw / Carwyn even if they came up and slapped them in the face then Labour needs to do something. One option is to get the whole leadership election over and done with and then stick the winners face on every magazine / TV show / newspaper going and start building a public persona.

My point therefore, the longer Rhodri holds on the more damaging for Labour because the less time his successor will have before GE day. If polls are to be believed then people are turning away from Labour – having an anonymous leader here in Wales is not likely to get them back.

Thoughts?

Side note: My table at Pizza Express was a mixed bag. I was the youngest there by about 8 years. The rest were teachers, community workers, television assistant directors and a student (plus a two year old). And they were struggling to find a relevance to my question when there are other more important things going on in their respective lives. Winning back hearts and minds it seems will be difficult for every party.

Dewi Un

A Dewi Meets the Welsh Secretary

2009-09-24T23:29:00.002+01:00

I had a chat with Peter Hain yesterday. He was up on Anglesey seeing the effect of the recession on the island. He didn't seem to think it was that bad...some might say he wasn't looking hard enough.

We started by talking about the island and he said he was very disappointed at the Anglesey Aluminium decision and it was in the wake of that decision that he was in Beaumaris (then heading over to Llangefni and Holyhead) to see how things were going.

He took in some lunch at Beau's on Beaumaris High Street (which is GOOD little cafe!) - it's a town that's had a pretty good summer. British tourists have flocked to the region this year – not such good news for the coastguard but that's another story...

I asked Mr Hain about the decision not to build a prison in Caernarfon. He stuck by the Government line – it wasn't a U-turn, the site just isn't suitable.

Either way it's a blow to North Wales but Mr Hain did say he was keen to have a prison up here and it was now up to the local councils to “find him a site” that he could take to the Prisons Minister.

Any preferences, I asked?

No he doesn't. Fair enough. Different story printed in the Daily Post this morning. I have my version on tape!

Finally I asked if he'd be adding his voice to those supporting Edwina Hart as next Labour leader.

“Edwina is a very able Minister. There are a number of very good candidates.”

As Welsh Secretary he's not going to pick a favourite. Shame.

I was a little bit surprised he answered the question at all but not surprised he was non-committal.

So that's what happened when a Dewi met the current Welsh Secretary. That's 2 in a row! Any more Ministers who fancy heading north for a chat would be more than welcome!

Dewi Tri

This Just In...

2009-09-21T17:24:00.003+01:00

Here are some extracts from a document sent around the houses today that we thought you may find interesting. It’s a statement by the Presiding Officer about the bilingual services offered by the Assembly Commission.

(The writing you see in red was added by me as a means of explanation and doesn’t appear in the press release)

It reads:

“As Wales’s principal democratic institution, the Assembly has a duty to enable all citizens and Assembly Members to be informed about, and contribute fully to, the democratic process in their chosen language – through Welsh or through English. The Government of Wales Act 2006 stipulates that “In the exercise of the functions of the Assembly Commission effect must be given, so far as is both appropriate in the circumstances and reasonably practicable, to the principle that the English and Welsh languages should be treated on the basis of equality.” (Schedule 2 Section 8(3)). Since 2007, the Assembly Commission has significantly developed and extended the bilingual services provided by the Assembly...”

“In June and July this year the Commission considered its strategic priorities in relation to the draft budget which will be laid tomorrow. Our aim was to limit the budget increase for 2010-11 as far as possible, so as to make as much of the Welsh block as possible available to support public services, while still delivering effective services for the Assembly. One of the options that was considered related to the translation of the Record of Proceedings. At the Commission meeting today we took account of the representations that have been made to us by Assembly Members and others. We concluded that we should take four main steps...” (emphasis added)

“Firstly, we will continue to translate the Record of Plenary Proceedings from English into Welsh so that a fully bi-lingual written record is produced, but to do so within 3 to 10 days of each plenary meeting. (emphasis added)

Secondly, we will introduce the facility for all proceedings related to legislation (i.e. all proceedings at Stages 2, 3 and 4 as well as committee scrutiny) to be translated.

Thirdly, we will establish an independent review to examine our delivery of bilingual services prior to the formal review of the Assembly’s Welsh Language Scheme in 2010. (emphasis added)

Fourthly, we will take steps to bring forward legislation to put the status of the two languages used in the business of the Assembly on a sound statutory footing.” (emphasis added)

And to finish:

“The Welsh Language Act 1993 was never intended to provide a framework within which a national legislature operates... but the Legislative Competence Order (LCO) on the Welsh language, when made, will provide us with the power to do so. The Commission intends to consider the options which will be open to the Assembly when the LCO in question becomes law.”

So what do we make of these four steps then? It seems to me that a review of the current set up is likely to be costly and time consuming – the exact opposite of what the Commission is trying to achieve. And whilst a wait of 3-10 days may seem like a fair compromise to some, Dafydd Ellis Thomas is bound to come under pressure from some language hardliners; however the extending of translation facilities in other areas may just appease them.

The interesting point for me from this whole debacle is wheather or not the commission’s desire for that LCO to see the light of day speeds up the process up at all?

Tell us what you think

Dewi Un

Plaid's Stance on Nuclear?

2009-09-17T19:16:00.000+01:00

Lord Elis-Thomas opened the new storage facility at Trawsfynydd today.

He used the occasion to throw his support behind a new reactor for Wylfa B on Anglesey – which is also causing his Plaid colleague Ieuan Wyn Jones a headache or two because according to Plaid’s 2005 manifesto the party "does not support new nuclear power stations, particularly as civil nuclear power fuels nuclear weapons development; is heavily subsidised; and cannot safely dispose of the highly toxic waste".

How does that work then?

They’re facing a problem because these sites are massive employers in the local areas, particularly Wylfa which is situated on an island short of good news stories as far as jobs are concerned of late.

Plaid, in short, are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.

Dewi Tri

Constituency Spotlight: Llanelli

2009-09-17T12:05:00.006+01:00

No one knows when GB will eventually announce that election – with doomsday edging closer groups of people (form journalists to local activists) are huddling together to talk about how they’ll tackle the beast. It’s likely that we’ll all be holding our collective breath for some time (my prediction is an April election) however with arguably some of the most intriguing battlegrounds of the election here in Wales we thought it would be a good idea to have a look at them (premature maybe – but what the hey).

Llanelli

Here are some numbers about Llanelli

2005 General Election

Party –Candidate – Votes - % - Swing

Labour –Nia Griffith – 16,952 – 46.9% - -1.7
Plaid – Neil Baker – 9,358 – 26.5% - -4.4
Con – Adrian Phillips - 4,844 -13/7% - +4.2
Lib Dem – Ken Rees - 4,550 – 12.9% - +4.4

Majority – 7,234 (20.4%)
Turnout – 35, 344 (63.5%/+1.2)

2001 General Election

Party – Candidate – Votes - % - Swing

Labour – Denzil Davies -17,586- 48.6% - -9.3
Plaid – Dyfan Jones – 11,183 – 30.9% - +11.9
Conservative – Simon Hayes -3,442 – 9.5% - -2.6
Lib Dem – Ken Rees – 3,065 – 8.5% --0.7
Green – Jan Cliff – 515 – 1.4% - N/A
Socialist Labour – John Willock – 407 – 1.1% --0.7

Majority – 6,403 (17.7%)
Turnout - 36,198 (62.3% / -8.4)

2009 Euro Election

Plaid Cymru - 5990

Labour Party - 4053

Conservatives - 2063

UKIP - 1846

Liberal Democrats - 946

Others - 2466

Turnout - 17429 (around 31%)

What Else do we know?

Plaid Cymru think they can win here and are therefore taking Llanelli very seriously – here’s a Tweet today from one of their local party workers:

“Interested in canvassing Llanelli for @drmyfanwydavies - please get intouch with @natashacody - Think Different. Think Plaid. Think Myfanwy.”

“Think Different. Think Plaid. Think Myfanwy. - Join the Llanelli campaign team today, contact @natashacody #plaidcymru - @drmyfanwydavies”

They’ve shoved their candidate Dr Myfanwy Davies in front of every camera going (I think she’s been on Pawb a'i Farn more times than Dewi Llwyd!) and are doing their best to raise her profile.

The 2005 election result was not what Plaid wanted – they hope that this time round they can replicate and improve on that 11% swing we saw in 2001 and take the seat from Labour.

Why Llanelli?

The result in Llanelli will be a strong indicator as to how bad the night will be for Labour – hold here and it may not be a disaster after all. Lose here and it could be an example of a worrying trend across the country.

Dewi Un

Making a Difference

2009-09-11T15:06:00.003+01:00

At this point I would like to reiterate that Politics Cymru is an impartial and non partisan blog that tells things as we see them. We have no agenda to push and no ego’s to massage, but as bloggers, commentators and journalists we just sometimes have to give credit where credit’s due.

The conference season is upon us and being unable to join Politics Cymru’s North Wales correspondent Dewi Tri up in Llandudno I’m casting an eagle eye over proceedings from afar (via Twitter, bloggers, insiders and other social networking sites).

So here it is, this video by Plaid Cymru shows just how far ahead they are (of the other parties) in terms of thinking outside the traditional box of electioneering. Regardless of whether you agree with the message contained within the video itself (which can be picked apart) you surely must agree with me that stylistically it’s spot on. Compare that with most of the tripe that other parties put out there as propaganda it’s in a class of its own. Clearly Plaid Cymru has spent a considerable amount of time (and probably money) on this. It impressed me from its use of camera shots, its use of music and the evident care taken in post production. It almost doesn’t look like a political video (which is an achievement in its own right).

The question we here at Politics Cymru have been asking for ages is when will the other parties make at least some attempt to try and catch up? I’m not suggesting that the upcoming General Election will be won or lost because of one posh video, but I am saying that Plaid are clearly more in touch with the new methods of vote winning that could sway a fairly sizeable portion of the Welsh electorate. Given that the Welsh battleground is particularly close that could make the difference between 3 MPs and (as Ron Davies suggested) 8 MPs.

So what have the others been doing? To be fair it looks as if their at least trying. This video by Welsh Labour is quite nice if a bit dull, if you want to watch all of Cameron Direct in Rhyl (I’m sure someone does) then you can do so here at the conservative site and for Lib Dem TV click here. However do you also get the feeling that the others aren’t taking this quite as seriously as Plaid?

It may be that videos like this have no impact whatsoever on the elections outcome. Because at the end of the day the vast majority will decide who they vote for based on the issues. However a lot of those people are often torn between two parties who are particularly close on certain issues and so it could be that a video like this one might just make a difference (I couldn’t help myself).

Dewi Un

(Just saying what I see)

Plaid look north

2009-09-10T19:09:00.002+01:00

It’s good to be back! And as Dewi Un blogged earlier I’m now up north – away from the goings on in Cardiff Bay.

Luckily this week the politics has come to me! Across the corridor from where Venue Cymru are launching this year’s pantomime season (and where I had a very strange lunch complete with Christmas trees and mince pies), Plaid Cymru are holding their annual conference.

In the politics panto, Plaid were setting themselves up this morning as the hero of the piece while the Tories are the evil stepmother and Labour takes the role of the bumbling Buttons…

Picking Llandudno for their conference, its clear Plaid’s sights this week are set on grabbing hold of voters disillusioned with the mainstream and looking for something different!

They’ve traditionally had a stronghold in the North West, now they’re looking for a foothold in the North East…

Helen Mary Jones told a press conference this morning that the most dangerous thing right now for the Welsh health service would be a Conservative administration in Westminster – because, she says, the Assembly is so dependent upon how much the Westminster administration spends to determine their own budget (tax raising powers in Wales would also help!).

Later in the day former Labour SoS Ron Davies told Plaid members that the birth of New Labour had meant the death of Old Labour values and that the time was nigh for another party to step in and become THE party of Wales.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting conference so far…the speeches start tomorrow!

Dewi Tri

Hanes y Tri Dewi

2009-09-10T14:00:00.001+01:00

Well dear reader, as you’ve no doubt noticed we have been blogging light (or not at all) over the past few weeks. There is good reason behind this which I shall now explain.

Firstly the move into employment has been a traumatic one which has left us with little or no time to dedicate to the blog. If you watch BBC Cymru’s excellent “Newyddion” then you will have no doubt come across Dewi Dau strutting his stuff as a fully fledged journalist. If you’re lucky (or unlucky) enough to live up north then tune into Heart FM to hear the lyrical tones of Dewi Tri giving you the important news of the day. As for myself if I told you what I was doing for a living then I would have to kill you, so I think it’s best for all concerned if we don’t go there.

Secondly, finally and most importantly the summer recess is quite simply a snore fest. Now that the time of return is edging closer things are starting to pick up and our spider senses are starting to flash with stories once more.

So put your handkerchiefs away, dry those eyes because PC (time permitting) is back on the trail of all things Welsh Politics.

Dewi Un

'Steddfod! 'Steddfod!

2009-08-10T12:19:00.010+01:00

It wouldn't be an Eisteddfod nowadays without a Politics Cymru Podcast!

In between appearances on S4C2 Dewi Un and Dewi Dau spent some time comparing stalls..

Enjoy!

German shrubs for WAG garden

2009-08-02T12:10:00.004+01:00

Rumours reaching us at Politics Cymru suggest the £70,000 worth of plants bought to decorate the Welsh Assembly Government's new offices in Aberystwyth have been imported from Germany.

The building, which has cost £20 million to build opens in September. It will be the new base for the Mid-Wales branch of the Department for the Economy and Transport, the Forestry Commission, the Countryside Council for Wales and the Department for Rural Affairs.

With such a team on the inside you would have thought they could have found some locally-sourced shrubs for the outside! (No doubt they would have been cheaper as well.)

Dewi Dau

Plaid's £1m Year

2009-07-30T18:02:00.000+01:00

Plaid Cymru are well set up for the coming General Election according to figures released by the electoral commission.

The party apparently received £1m in donations in 2008 – more than half of that came from wills.

By comparison, the Liberal Democrats received just £5.4m throughout the whole of the UK – with Labour and the Conservatives taking in more than £30m each.

The credit crunch not hitting too hard then...

The BBC are reporting that Plaid haven't spent all of their £1m yet – they still have £300,000 in the war chest to spend in competitive seats...

(Ceredigion and Ynys Mon look out!)

Dewi Tri

Up Close and Personal

2009-07-24T19:16:00.002+01:00

Gordon Brown et al’s visit to Wales yesterday gave us here at Politics Cymru the opportunity to complete the set - that is Cameron, Clegg and Brown (in that chronological order). Having met the big 3 I thought it a good idea to write a brief comparative note on them.

In all honesty Gordon Brown was the most impressive in person. He came across to the audience as authoritative, hugely intelligent yet personable (when he wasn’t exaggerating the contents of his I-pod). It made me wonder why his communications staff are so insistent on turning him into a clone of Tony Blair? Especially since this particular tactic is failing so miserably (remember that YouTube smile) and being mastered so brilliantly by his opposite number. As Prime Minister what’s wrong with being high brow? What’s wrong with preferring Bach and Beethoven over U2? What’s wrong with being obsessive about facts and figures? Why does a Prime Minister need to be a showman all of a sudden? What’s wrong with being a heavyweight? His current media plan is blatantly not working and looks like sending him and the rest of the Labour party to electoral doom.

I came out of yesterday's Q and A with Brown experiencing a strange sensation - as if I had just seen a dead man walking. I also came out thinking that if his media strategy was different then he wouldn’t be 17 points behind in the polls.

So how does he compare with Cameron? Despite the obvious passion for his brand of conservativism and his mastery of the Tony Blair way of doing things you can’t escape the fact that when DC’s answering a question it feels like he’s trying to sell you something - “and would you like our comprehensive insurance package with that?”. This makes you wonder - does he truly mean what he just said or is he saying it because it’s makes strategic sense to do so? It might just be that age and a few grey hairs make him more convincing in person - his whiter than white polished aura does make you think that he’s been groomed for power.

And Clegg? An affable chap is how one would describe Nick Clegg. Clegg like Brown does seem to have true belief in his message but it’s almost as if he knows that not many other people do. A ruddy nice fellow, but does he share the same aura as the other two? The aura that Prime Ministers have? I’m not sure he does.

All three have their strengths and weaknesses and it might well be that on a different day I would write a totally different article - but those are my genuine thoughts and impressions after meeting all 3.

I would say that a Presidential style debate between the three come election time would be fascinating and I would love them to have the courage to do it, but I doubt their communications teams have the balls.

Keep your thoughts coming in

Dewi Un

Kirsty's Listening

2009-07-24T13:17:00.002+01:00

Forget Twitter and Facebook and all the fancy gadgets in between – Kirsty Williams is going back to basics and wants members of the public to send over ideas on a postcard.

"I believe that leaders should listen, not preach."

Fair doos.

But is this the best way to engage with her party members and the general public do we think? Can it encourage greater interaction with the political process? Or is it just a stunt that will have very little impact?

In PC style we'll wait and see.

In the meantime, if you want to tell Kirsty what's important to you, all the details are on the Lib Dem Cymru site.

Dewi Tri

PS The Dewis apologise for a lack of blogging of late – it's a busy time but we're still here!

WAG Has Been Paying for First Class Travel

2009-07-15T14:11:00.002+01:00

Politics Cymru has seen evidence that Welsh taxpayers have been paying for First Class Travel despite the First Minister's vehement denials yesterday.

The Liberal Democrats' Freedom of Information request was met with some hostility from Rhodri Morgan who said that the story had been blown completely out of proportion and denied that civil servants used First Class flights (and said that even he himself doesn't take up such luxuries).

However, a travel itinerary leaked to the Welsh Lib Dems and seen by Politics Cymru now reveals that First Class Virgin Atlantic flights from New York to Los Angeles and back again in February and March of this year were paid for by the Welsh Taxpayer.

Kirsty Williams is now set to write to the First Minister demanding an apology for his comments yesterday.

Wales' top civil servant, Dame Gillian Morgan, did confirm yesterday that she would lead an investigation into Civil Servant's expenses.

Dewi Tri

ReActing well to the recession?

2009-07-15T13:05:00.001+01:00

Just a quick post whilst I’m tucking away a chicken Caesar sandwich in Terra Nova. Some good news for Wales; unemployment is falling here in stark contrast to the rest of Britain where it is rising. Rhodri Morgan has said that this good sign shows that the Welsh economy is resisting the pressures of the recession and is encouraged by the progress shown. Cheryl Gillan on the other hand is urging caution - let's not get overexcited is her message.

These figures must be good news for Welsh Labour and may offer them a glimmer of hope for all the elections coming their way in the next few years. If these trends continue then they can legitimately claim that they have saved Welsh jobs (through their policies like ProAct and ReAct) and will surely therefore gain a degree of respect and popularity with a large proportion of the electorate.

All of Welsh Labour must have every possible finger crossed that these figures are not just a flash in the pan, at the moment it looks like these figures and their continued success is Welsh Labour’s only weapon in the face of electoral disaster.

Dewi Un

Be careful what you wish for...

2009-07-15T11:55:00.003+01:00

So Alun Davies has got his wish - last night he was selected by the Blaenau Gwent Labour party to stand as their candidate in the next Assembly election. Honourable or foolish? Brave or stupid? One thing's for sure; he must be a mightily relieved man this morning.

Remember his spectacular attack on Blaenau Gwent incumbent Trish law? The most striking quote from that fateful press conference in my opinion was his description of her as “invisible especially when she’s on her feet”. Had the AM for Mid and West Wales failed to secure the nomination in Blaenau Gwent he would have been left with a considerable amount of egg on his face - so much so he would have found it difficult if not impossible to trot back to the people of Mid and West Wales without having more egg thrown his way.

Blaenau Gwent is now surely shaping up to be one of the stories of the next Assembly election and if Alun Davies is successful - it may just gain him the respect he craves within the Labour party.

Dewi Un

Lobby briefings - 14/07/09 (the last ones)

2009-07-14T16:27:00.007+01:00

And so on to the last lobby briefings of the year.

We begin with a personal reflection on the year that was for Politics Cymru:

And here's what Rodders had to say in the WAG's final (and possibly his own?) press briefing:

Nick had a dig at IWJ in his:

While Kirsty reflected on her first term as party leader:

Side note: we've just finished at Cardiff University's Centre for Journalism Studies, not UWIC.

Pob hwyl/Happy recess!

Y Tri Dewi

Splashing the Cash

2009-07-13T21:51:00.018+01:00

A few pints of Guinness in New York: £3,500

A year's worth of flights from Hong Kong: £70,000...

...Another Welsh Liberal Democrats FOI: priceless!

* * * *

Every Tuesday as we three Dewis sit in the Senedd's cafe sipping our not-too-pleasant coffee between doses of Nick Bourne and Kirsty Williams, we keep ourselves entertained (yes, we really are that sad!) by wondering what Freedom of Information request the Welsh Liberal Democrats have submitted in time for this week's lecture.

But our game has been inconsiderately spoiled this week as it is perfectly clear what dirt Kirsty's trusted aides have been digging for in time for the year's final set of press briefings. It also seems convenient that this information comes ahead of the only WAG briefing which can be filmed by the country's media.

So WAG officials have spent nearly three-quarters of a million tax-payer's pounds on promoting Wales abroad using 34 credit cards. That figure includes more than £250,000 spent by the New York office alone on kids' furnishings, and food and drink at the Irish pub, Clancy's (£3,500). And the WAG must be sending all it's youthful staff across the pond because employees at the Big Apple office have also also spent £2,500 on teen clothing.

And what about the Hong Kong office? Well £70,000 was spent by its staff on flights during 2008-09 and nearly £22,000 on overnight accommodation.

With all that money to throw about surely us journos can be provided with some decent coffee on our Tuesday morning expeditions to the Bay.

Anyway, here's what Kirsty has had to say:

"Every taxpayer in Wales deserves an explanation from the Labour-Plaid government. Whilst we're in the middle of a recession it's disgusting to know that public officials are flying first class, staying in the most expensive hotels, eating in the best restaurant - all at the swipe of the Welsh credit card."

And in what has become a familiar dig at Ieuan Wyn Jones - Kirsty Williams recently slapped him on the wrist for mislaying a few laptops - the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats had this to say:

"The minister for Economy and Transport has some serious questions to answer. What if any procedures are in place to monitor and police spending? What kind of guidance allows civil servants to to take first class flights and live this superstar lifestyle? How can we be sure that all of this activity directly generates investment into Wales? Quite frankly what on earth is going on and what will be done about this?"

Seems the Lib Dems are providing the questions for us to pose at the WAG's briefing tomorrow as well then!

They really are determined to take the fun out of our Tuesday morning.

Stay tuned to see what was said at the three briefings.

Dewi Dau

image used courtesy of SqueakyMarmot @ http://www.flickr.com/photos/squeakymarmot/2058416937/

Podcast #29: Home Sweet Home

2009-07-09T18:25:00.005+01:00

Today we invite you into the humble home of Politics Cymru. Step inside and make yourselves at home!

Up for discussion on this week's vodcast: AMs' expenses (they're becoming a bit of a regular feature aren't they?), the language LCO and the Barnett formula.

For all this and much much more, just hit 'play'!

*Regular viewers will be aware that at the beginning of our other vodcasts we have shown the outside of the venue. However you will understand that due to security reasons and for fear of being compromised in the future we have been unable to do so this week.*

Have a great weekend and we hope you enjoy the cricket,

Pob hwyl,

Y Tri Dewi

Over the Rainbow? Apparently not.

2009-07-08T23:29:00.007+01:00

A tip - if ever you decide you'd like to know why the Rainbow coalition never came to be, please don't go asking Bethan Jenkins or Peter Black.

In fact this recent twitter exchange between the Plaid and Lib Dem AMs should be enough to make you lay the matter to rest!

It seems the friendly exchange began after an interested twitterer by the name of Marcuswarner, asked the following, innocent question:

#senedd is it only the 6 lib dem AMs that believe their 2007 coalition yarn?5:23 PM Jul 7th from web

@ Marcuswarner - it seems they are delusional. Eveyone at the conf yesterday were well aware of their role in the coalition negotiations....5:30 PM Jul 7th from web

@bethanjenkins you were considering rainbow option weeks after LD exec vote. Your rejected it. Nothing delusional about that.5:36 PM Jul 7th from web

@peterblackwales- your party refused it before that.5:37 PM Jul 7th from web

@bethanjenkins no it didnt Bethan.My party voted for it. Stop rewriting history.8:28 PM Jul 7th from web in reply to bethanjenkins

@peterblackwales i think you are the one doing that.8:40 PM Jul 7th from Tweetie in reply to peterblackwales

@bethanjenkins not at all. Review the events not the myths generated by your spin doctors.8:44 PM Jul 7th from web in reply to bethanjenkins

@peterblackwales- that's a really hard accusation- lying. I never wanted Rainbow. Why would I want to lie about the whole thing?about 23 hours ago from web

@bethanjenkins Your preferences at the time are irrelevant. You have adopted Plaid lies designed to spin a particular view of past events.about 15 hours ago from web

@peterblackwales- no I haven't. I will defend it so we could continue this for agesabout 14 hours ago from web

@bethanjenkins well if you are persisting in saying we voted against then clearly you have adopted Plaid liesabout 14 hours ago from web

@peterblackwales -http://www.timesonline.co.u...about 14 hours ago from web

@bethanjenkins article is incorrect in saying the Exec vetoed it as was evidenced by subsequent conf. Vote figures support my view on lies.about 10 hours ago from web in reply to bethanjenkins

@peterblackwales oh please can we leave this now? This is going nowhere!about 5 hours ago from Tweetie in reply to peterblackwales

@bethanjenkins I am not going to concede on the lies and misinformation Plaid are putting about. It is important that history not rewrittenabout 5 hours ago from web in reply to bethanjenkins

@peterblackwales- I have consulted a well know political pundit on this, and that person agrees with my analysis. I have nothing more to sayabout 4 hours ago from web

@bethanjenkins well he cant be that independent if he supports your distorted view of history #plaidrewritehistoryabout 4 hours ago from web in reply to bethanjenkins

@peterblackwales- he is not 'my' pundit! He is independent. What a laugh.about 4 hours ago from web

So there we go then. Things may be awkward in the corridor from now on. Or then again they do say "wrth gicio a brathu mae cariad yn magu"!

Thoughts anybody?

Dewi Dau

Tro Newydd yng Nghynffon yr LCO Iaith

2009-07-08T10:28:00.006+01:00

Felly o'r diwedd daeth ymateb Pwyllgor Dethol Materion Cymreig San Steffan i'r cais am drosglwyddo pwerau dros yr iaith i'r Cynulliad.

Ac mae digon o inc coch i'w weld yno.

Dyma ddywedodd Vaughan am y peth ar ei flog ef:

"Ffrwyth cyfaddawdu'r [sic] yw'r LCO, cyfaddawdu yn gyntaf rhwng Llafur a Phlaid Cymru yn y Bae ac yna cyfaddawdu pellach rhwng Llywodraeth y Cynulliad a Paul Murphy yn Swyddfa Cymru."

Er mawr ryddhad i'r rhai sy'n ymgyrchu dros yr iaith, mae'r pwyllgor yn cytuno taw yng Nghaerdydd y dylai'r pwerau i ddeddfu ar yr iaith fod. Mae Cymdeithas yr Iaith wedi croesawu'r newyddion er bod Menna Machreth, cadeirydd CYI, yn gofidio y bydd yn rhaid aros i hyn ddigwydd:

"Mae'n galonogol fod y Pwyllgor Materion Cymreig yn unfrydol eu barn mai'r Cynulliad dylai ddeddfu ar yr iaith Gymraeg, ond mae’r adroddiad yn dweud y byddai'r Pwyllgor yn dymuno trafod y Gorchymyn eto os oes newidiadau gan y Cynulliad, sy'n achosi pryder oherwydd nid oes angen llusgo traed a gwastraffu amser ymhellach yn y broses hon," meddai.

Unwaith eto mae datganiad y pwyllgor dethol yn codi cwestiynau ynghylch faint o ymyrraeth y dylai'r pwyllgor ei gael ar union gynnwys cais am bwerau.

Mae'r Aelodau Seneddol wedi holi, er enghraifft, pam fod cwmnïau telathrebu’n cael eu cynnwys yn y cais ond fod banciau'n rhydd i wneud fel y mynnant. Cytuna Menna Machreth fod hyn yn bwynt y dylid ei thrafod:

"Dywed yr adroddiad ymhellach fod anghysondeb yn y rhestr o ddarparwyr, sef yn union beth rydym ni wedi bod yn ei ddweud oherwydd dylai bobl Cymru gael hawl i wasanaethau Cymraeg ar draws pob gwasanaeth; e.e. cynnwys trenau ond nid bysiau, telegyfathrebu ond nid banciau," meddai.

Fodd bynnag nid yw Cymdeithas yr Iaith yn credu taw lle'r pwyllgor dethol yw dweud pethau felly. Yn hytrach y Cynulliad ddylai gael gwneud y fath benderfyniadau wedi i'r pwerau gael eu trosglwyddo:

"[N]id ydym yn credu mai lle Gorchymyn sy’n trosglwyddo pwerau yw nodi hyn, ond penderfyniad Llywodraeth y Cynulliad wrth lunio mesur," meddai Menna Machreth.

"Mae pobl Cymru wedi gorfod gwneud y tro â gwasanaethau Cymraeg tocenistig os o gwbl yn ddigon hir, mae'n bryd rhoi hawl i’r Gymraeg i’r rheiny sydd am fyw drwy gyfrwng y Gymraeg er mwyn creu sefyllfa fwy cyfartal i’r iaith yng Nghymru," ychwanegodd.

Dewi Dau

llun wedi ei ddefnyddio gyda chaniatad 'Crystl': http://www.flickr.com/photos/crystalflickr/98542851/

Lobby briefings - 07/07/2009

2009-07-07T16:24:00.006+01:00

It's that time of week again and so here are your video digests from today's lobby briefings.

Gerald Holtham took the reigns at the WAG's briefing and Dewi Un brings you a condensed version of what he had to say (you can see our interview with the chair of the funding review in full here).

Dewi Tri then went to listen to Nick Bourne. The Conservatives were responding to the Halthom report and discussing yesterday's expenses announcements:

And finally Dewi Dau brings you right up to date with what's happening in the Lib Dem camp (see if you can spot the mystery AM lurking in the background - seemingly intent on putting me off my game!):

So that's that for another week.

Hwyl am y tro.

Y Tri Dewi