The Debate: Results

There I was last night popcorn in one hand, oversized soft drink in the other eagerly anticipating the contest between the three people vying to become Wales’ next First Minister. Aside from the cries of “get a life” from my housemates and girlfriend I must say I quite enjoyed the programme despite the candidates rehearsed answers to some of the questions.

So who came out on top? Well I think it was a pretty close run thing. There’s not all that much to separate the three on policy (bar a couple of notable exceptions), there was a lot of “well I agree with a lot of what Carwyn / Edwina / Huw said there but can I just add...” so I think the decision will come down to style and personality.

So what of their style – Huw seemed relaxed, didn’t read from notes and came across as the most down to Earth. He did however fail to deal in specifics and generalised a lot. His performance last night wouldn’t have done him any harm but it’s fair to say that he lacked that aura of a First Minister – a nice, well meaning, idealistic politician – yes. First Minister? Probably not.

Edwina Hart has warmed somewhat to the camera’s over the duration of the contest. She has tried and been fairly successful I think at shedding her traditional grouchy image and showed some wit and humour in places last night. She did fidget with her pen a great deal and read a lot from (what I assume to be) pre-prepared notes. Mrs Hart did however tackle the questions asked (bar the one on health) fairly directly and didn’t go off on one without referring to the original question too much. She wasn’t afraid to stick her neck out and disagree with the questioners position and did receive the most applause from the audience.

Carwyn seemed the most composed of the three, as you’d expect from an ex-barrister with more public speaking experience. He didn’t rely on notes too much (although there were definitely a few pre-prepped tid bits in there). He is evidently comfortable in front of the camera’s and probably quite enjoyed the experience. But was he too safe? Was he too boring? Was he too much like the politicians that the public have turned against? With the Labour party needing an almighty great big rocket up their backsides before this upcoming election are his ‘safe pair of hands’ likely to provide it?

So there we are, on balance I think Carwyn Jones shaded it – but the other two by no means disgraces themselves. And I'm sure that their camps will disagree but there we go!

I do sometimes wish that they weren’t all so nice to each and really had a go at one another –I enjoyed last night but my housemates and better half who were forced to watch alongside me found it all rather bland. Not at all like the West Wing they said....

What did you think? If you're a Labour member who are you voting for and why?

Dewi Un

“Clinging pathetically to some shred of welsh culture”

Firstly dear readers – my sincerest apologies for the lack of blogging over the past few weeks. Things have changed a lot in PC HQ which has held us away from our respective keyboards.

Last week I stumbled across a programme that inspired me to get back into the swing of things.
Called Cymru Hywel Williams this programme takes a look back at Welsh history and not only questions the future of Wales as a nation, but questions the very concept of today’s Wales as a nation. It’s an interesting watch you can see it (with subtitles) here.

Hywel Williams argues that historically Wales has preferred to integrate with the English way of life rather than try to stand on its own two feet. He argues that since the age of Henry Tudor the Welsh have chosen to accept throwaway gifts from the English (like a Welsh language Bible, S4C and the Senedd) rather than stand up for itself as a nation. During this first episode of a series of six Hywel Williams claims that this weakness is born from an obsession with culture, which has led to the Nation’s loyalty being bought by the English.

Wales is often seen as a country full of radical thinkers and socialists fighting for the greater good. A nonsense according to Mr Williams who believes that support in Wales for the great socialist causes (Miners Strike etc) came from an inner guilt, and not from an underlying belief in equality and justice.

According to the historian Wales is fixated with the legends and fairytales of old and oblivious to its current lack of leaders, leadership and direction. Whilst other fledgling nations have fought for freedom and self determination, ours has chosen to fight for by-lingual signs whilst also standing by to watch the aristocracy reassert their right over Wales (Prince Charles’s crowning and The Queen opening the Senedd are used as examples).

So how much truth is there in this damning assessment of our Country? Are we just “clinging pathetically to some shred of welsh culture”?

Personally I think there is some merit in Hywel Williams’ logic – but I also feel that his conclusions are overly pessimistic. I also feel that his findings are representative of his background.

I was struck that not once during the episode did Hywel Willliams balance his argument with reference to the undoubted pride that the people of Wales have in being Welsh. What ‘being Welsh’ constitutes differs from person to person – but anecdotal evidence tell us that there is a ferocious passion here to the concept of ‘being Welsh’. Just take a look at Cardiff on a match day, or the Welsh viewing figures for Gavin and Stacey. Doesn’t this pride account for something?

I was also struck that a he chose not to balance his piece with reference to some of Wales most radical thinkers – people who have fought for equality and social justice – people like Aneurin Bevan and the scores of community development workers and voluntary organisations who’s (often radical) work goes unnoticed.

I don’t know what to make of this programme, I can’t decide whether I liked it or not, but I can tell you one thing it’s certainly got the little grey cells working!

Your thoughts are welcomed and today (as ever) actively encouraged!

Dewi Un

The Welsh Grand Committee does the Welsh language LCO

I have now decided that my behaviour today has proven my commitment to covering Welsh politics. Whilst the majority of my peers have been (apart from those in more stable employment) sunning themselves, shopping or going to the gym I have been watching the Welsh Grand Committee on Parliament TV. Yes I know I’m the height of cool.

These hours spent watching and Twittering (granted not as often during the afternoon session) has taught me several things about the scrutiny of LCOs.

It’s well documented on this website that during my time in university I spent many a Friday morning learning about the GOWA 2006 – its scope and powers and therefore the LCO process. What I learnt today is that the members of Parliament clearly have not interpreted the Act as my lecturers had. Granted THIS LCO is a special case, however what I saw today was the process of minutiae scrutiny (and even a request to see a draft measure before passing the LCO), as opposed to a broader approach that looked purely at the legality of the LCO.

My (along with lecturers / classmates) interpretation of the GOWA is that it’s the Assembly’s role to make the measures and it’s the Welsh MPs role to transfer the powers but only if they fall within the remit of the above mentioned act. We have known for some time now that this isn’t the approach that the Welsh MPs appear to be taking, or is it?

Several times during today’s debate’s the MPs seemed confused themselves as to what exactly they were talking about, and several times some MPs had to remind others that it was not their place to discuss what would be included in a measure but instead what was included in the LCO. Confused? Some of them certainly seemed to be.

My conclusion after watching today’s proceedings:

Someone somewhere surely needs to clarify the role of the Welsh MPs with regards to LCOs.

Are they essentially scrutinising future measures and therefore looking at LCOs to do exactly what they say on the tin?

Or are they (as I initially interpreted) looking at whether or not the LCO transfers powers that the Assembly shouldn’t have legally ? And therefore leaving the Assembly do the close scrutiny at the measure stage.

Either way - someone somewhere (for my sanity if nothing else) needs to decide or expect to see this confusion continue.

Dewi Un

P.S Great updates on Twitter from David Cornock, Nick Speed et al

MPs Hart Labour

Today we’ve found out that Edwina Hart’s campaign has been boosted with the support of Paul Murphy MP and Don Touhig MP – as one tweet put it, two for the price of one.

Now have I missed something somewhere? I’m sure that all the talk to this point has been that whilst Edwina Hart is popular with the trade unionists and some AMs, her campaign would likely splutter due to a lack of support from MPs. Today’s news surely means that this analysis is flawed?

Paul Murphy and Don Touhig are some of the most senior Labour MPs and the most anti-devolution. If they support Edwina Hart’s campaign then surely many more MPs will follow? Edwina Hart is seen as a radical and the most pro-devolution of the three candidates – so if Don and Paul have ignored their natural opposition to these positions, and backed the AM from Gower, then maybe MPs are not as anti Edwina as we have been led to believe?

If this is the case and MPs are dancing to Edwina Hart’s tune then surely she must become the front runner?

Ladbrokes latest on Welsh First Minister race has it as:

Jones 4/6, Hart 5/2, Lewis 7/2

So Carwyn Jones is in the lead for now – but if more MPs start harting Labour then I suspect the odds will change.

Dewi Un

Podcast #2.2: The Importance of Being Seen

The Podcast returns with the best quiz ever (for Dewi Tri)...

We're also talking about the Labour leadership, who's got the snaziest website and how much of a difference that really makes??

Dewi Tri's also been along to the Topping Out of the new Assembly building at Llandudno Junction with Mr Rhodri Morgan so will this help public relations up north??

All that, fun and banter in our new look Politics Cymru Podcast.

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Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - not in the bag?

So we now know pretty much who the runners and riders are not only in the Labour leadership race, but in the race for selection in Carmarthenshire East and Dinefwr. What is seen by many as a safe Plaid seat (I’ll come on to this later) sounds like an ideal place for a Plaid candidate to stand.

The big guns to watch out for: Angharad Mair and Jonathan Edwards, I expect the race to effectively come down to these two, and I expect the winner to be pretty pleased. How often does a safe seat come up for grabs months before an election? Or is it a safe seat?

The facts are that Adam Price managed to take the traditionally Labour seat in 2001 and extended his majority from 2,590 to 6,718 in 2005. Adam Price is a local boy who went to school locally and whose parents live locally. Given the boundary changes in 1997 this local link becomes far more important. Why’s that then? Well now Ammanford and Llandeilo are the two biggest towns / population centres in the constituency and both are fairly intimate places – where mostly everyone knows pretty much everyone else, so local links and empathy for local issues become very important here. An absence of this cost the Labour campaign dearly in 2005 where the candidate was seen to have been parachuted in from London.

The constituency has a strong Labour tradition, Plaid managed to win the seat in 2001 because of a combination of a message that was more left wing than the Labour Party and a candidate with strong local roots who was brought up in the area (plus aforementioned boundary changes).

Coming from Glanamman myself I’ve spent some time talking to locals gathering their opinions. My findings are: There is not necessarily a loyalty to Plaid Cymru here, there is however a loyalty to Adam Price.

My point is - this is not Meirionnydd. There is no definite / concrete affiliation with Plaid Cymru here.

All of which means that Carmarthen East and Dinefwr could be up for grabs - making the selection of a candidate for Plaid Cymru all the more important. Angharad Mair, I am told, may well alienate the voters who feel, just as they did with Ross Hendry in 2005, that she has been parachuted in.

However with Labour’s inner party workings in Wales a mess, and their election coffers bare, it may be that they just don’t have the cash to support a push out West – which makes this entire article rather academic – so I suppose in classic Politics Cymru style, we shall have to wait and see....

Dewi Un

Campaign Website Review

It would appear Huw Lewis is slightly behind the times...I can’t find a campaign website for him.

Carwyn Jones (who technically doesn’t launch his campaign until tonight) has gone for a Wordpress blog with 1 post to date and different sections including ‘Carwyn’ and ‘Ministerial Record’...sounds like gripping stuff.

Edwina Hart has what is quite a stylish website complete with logos and catchphrases and everything!

Based purely on websites I know who I’d vote for...of course there’s much more to these campaigns than looking good!

Dewi Tri

ADD: Lewis4Labour is now online and Huw Lewis is on Twitter already! D3

Could this be what Wales look like after the next election?

Vaughan Roderick’s been blogging this morning on the Welsh results for the annual Politics Home survey of marginal constituencies.

Wales looking very interesting indeed and according to the index would see a major resurgence for the Conservatives who would take Aberconwy, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Gower, Newport West, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan…

Ouch.

It also sees Plaid making most of the gains they’d want to make.

Here's a summary of those Welsh marginals:

Aberconwy	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Arfon	Labour	PC GAIN
Brecon and Radnorshire	Lib Dem	Lib Dem HOLD
Bridgend	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Cardiff North	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Cardiff West	Labour	Labour HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembs	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Ceredigion	Lib Dem	PC GAIN
Clwyd South	Labour	Labour HOLD
Clwyd West	Conservative	Conservative HOLD
Delyn	Labour	Labour HOLD
Gower	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Llanelli	Labour	Labour HOLD
Newport West	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Preseli Pembrokeshire	Conservative	Conservative HOLD
Vale of Clwyd	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Vale of Glamorgan	Labour	Conservative GAIN
Ynys Mon	Labour	PC GAIN

If, like me, you can imagine no better way to spend your weekend take a look at all the findings here.

Dewi Tri

Do we need a North Wales candidate?

BANG! That’s the starting gun being fired on the race to succeed Rhodri Morgan.

But it strikes me that all the candidates (so far) are all based along the M4 route:- Edwina from Gower, Carwyn from Bridgend and Huw from Merthyr.

Three places that feel very far away from those of us based along the A55…

Would a candidate from the north perhaps offer something different to the debate?

Dewi Tri