Wales looking very interesting indeed and according to the index would see a major resurgence for the Conservatives who would take Aberconwy, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Gower, Newport West, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan…
Ouch.
It also sees Plaid making most of the gains they’d want to make.
Here's a summary of those Welsh marginals:
| Aberconwy | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Arfon | Labour | PC GAIN |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | Lib Dem | Lib Dem HOLD |
| Bridgend | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Cardiff North | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Cardiff West | Labour | Labour HOLD |
| Carmarthen West and South Pembs | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Ceredigion | Lib Dem | PC GAIN |
| Clwyd South | Labour | Labour HOLD |
| Clwyd West | Conservative | Conservative HOLD |
| Delyn | Labour | Labour HOLD |
| Gower | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Llanelli | Labour | Labour HOLD |
| Newport West | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | Conservative | Conservative HOLD |
| Vale of Clwyd | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Vale of Glamorgan | Labour | Conservative GAIN |
| Ynys Mon | Labour | PC GAIN |
If, like me, you can imagine no better way to spend your weekend take a look at all the findings here.
Dewi Tri
6 comments:
Presumably a failure by Plaid to win Llanelli and Aberconwy would be a blow, despite winning Mon and Ceredigion, which would be standing still rather than advancing.
So, assuming the swing is repeated at Welsh level - as it usually is to an even greater detriment to Labour's vote - we could be having another Welsh Labour leadership election in less than two years, as well...
The poll is interesting but inevitably flawed. If Plaid are getting 17% of the vote in these seats we are heading for huge vote across Wales. It leaves out our two best seats and some of the valley seats we would expect to see progress eg Cynon Valley, Neath, Islwyn Caerphilly.
The seat projections are made on a uniform swing not the views of the 150 people asked in each constituency. For Plaid to be on 17% overall on this list of seats we must be doing incredibly well in Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Arfon Llanelli and Aberconwy.
And what about Montgomeryshire????
Not even listed as a marginal here when anyone who has anything remotely to do with the area knows hos strong the anti Lembit O'Prick feeling is and just how respected Glyn Davies is. Montgomeryshire could well fall to the Tories
I agree that the Conservatives will almost definitely win Aberconwy (a new seat), Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan. The others are still up in the air, though. I agree with Anon that the Lib Dems will have to watch their backs in Montgomeryshire, too.
Plaid Cymru stand a good chance in Ceredigion but I can't see them taking Ynys Mon as the local Labour MP is quite popular. I'd fancy Plaid's chances more in Llanelli.
You have made an error re Arfon by the way- in its current form of Caernarfon, it's held by Plaid, not Labour, and would not therefore constitute a Plaid gain.
AlStill - Arfon is very different to Caernarfon, and is indeed nominally Labour. That's why it was created!
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