Saturday, 3 October 2009

Could this be what Wales look like after the next election?

Vaughan Roderick’s been blogging this morning on the Welsh results for the annual Politics Home survey of marginal constituencies.

Wales looking very interesting indeed and according to the index would see a major resurgence for the Conservatives who would take Aberconwy, Bridgend, Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembs, Gower, Newport West, Gower, Newport West, Vale of Clwyd and Vale of Glamorgan…


It also sees Plaid making most of the gains they’d want to make.

Here's a summary of those Welsh marginals:

Aberconwy Labour Conservative GAIN
Arfon Labour PC GAIN
Brecon and Radnorshire Lib Dem Lib Dem HOLD
Bridgend Labour Conservative GAIN
Cardiff North Labour Conservative GAIN
Cardiff West Labour Labour HOLD
Carmarthen West and South Pembs Labour Conservative GAIN
Ceredigion Lib Dem PC GAIN
Clwyd South Labour Labour HOLD
Clwyd West Conservative Conservative HOLD
Delyn Labour Labour HOLD
Gower Labour Conservative GAIN
Llanelli Labour Labour HOLD
Newport West Labour Conservative GAIN
Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative Conservative HOLD
Vale of Clwyd Labour Conservative GAIN
Vale of Glamorgan Labour Conservative GAIN
Ynys Mon Labour PC GAIN

If, like me, you can imagine no better way to spend your weekend take a look at all the findings here.

Dewi Tri



kairdiff West Kid said...

Presumably a failure by Plaid to win Llanelli and Aberconwy would be a blow, despite winning Mon and Ceredigion, which would be standing still rather than advancing.

Bobbie B said...

So, assuming the swing is repeated at Welsh level - as it usually is to an even greater detriment to Labour's vote - we could be having another Welsh Labour leadership election in less than two years, as well...

cymrumark said...

The poll is interesting but inevitably flawed. If Plaid are getting 17% of the vote in these seats we are heading for huge vote across Wales. It leaves out our two best seats and some of the valley seats we would expect to see progress eg Cynon Valley, Neath, Islwyn Caerphilly.

The seat projections are made on a uniform swing not the views of the 150 people asked in each constituency. For Plaid to be on 17% overall on this list of seats we must be doing incredibly well in Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Arfon Llanelli and Aberconwy.

Anonymous said...

And what about Montgomeryshire????
Not even listed as a marginal here when anyone who has anything remotely to do with the area knows hos strong the anti Lembit O'Prick feeling is and just how respected Glyn Davies is. Montgomeryshire could well fall to the Tories

AlStill said...

I agree that the Conservatives will almost definitely win Aberconwy (a new seat), Cardiff North, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, and the Vale of Glamorgan. The others are still up in the air, though. I agree with Anon that the Lib Dems will have to watch their backs in Montgomeryshire, too.

Plaid Cymru stand a good chance in Ceredigion but I can't see them taking Ynys Mon as the local Labour MP is quite popular. I'd fancy Plaid's chances more in Llanelli.

You have made an error re Arfon by the way- in its current form of Caernarfon, it's held by Plaid, not Labour, and would not therefore constitute a Plaid gain.

Pads said...

AlStill - Arfon is very different to Caernarfon, and is indeed nominally Labour. That's why it was created!