The big guns to watch out for: Angharad Mair and Jonathan Edwards, I expect the race to effectively come down to these two, and I expect the winner to be pretty pleased. How often does a safe seat come up for grabs months before an election? Or is it a safe seat?
The facts are that Adam Price managed to take the traditionally Labour seat in 2001 and extended his majority from 2,590 to 6,718 in 2005. Adam Price is a local boy who went to school locally and whose parents live locally. Given the boundary changes in 1997 this local link becomes far more important. Why’s that then? Well now Ammanford and Llandeilo are the two biggest towns / population centres in the constituency and both are fairly intimate places – where mostly everyone knows pretty much everyone else, so local links and empathy for local issues become very important here. An absence of this cost the Labour campaign dearly in 2005 where the candidate was seen to have been parachuted in from London.
The constituency has a strong Labour tradition, Plaid managed to win the seat in 2001 because of a combination of a message that was more left wing than the Labour Party and a candidate with strong local roots who was brought up in the area (plus aforementioned boundary changes).
Coming from Glanamman myself I’ve spent some time talking to locals gathering their opinions. My findings are: There is not necessarily a loyalty to Plaid Cymru here, there is however a loyalty to Adam Price.
My point is - this is not Meirionnydd. There is no definite / concrete affiliation with Plaid Cymru here.
All of which means that Carmarthen East and Dinefwr could be up for grabs - making the selection of a candidate for Plaid Cymru all the more important. Angharad Mair, I am told, may well alienate the voters who feel, just as they did with Ross Hendry in 2005, that she has been parachuted in.
However with Labour’s inner party workings in Wales a mess, and their election coffers bare, it may be that they just don’t have the cash to support a push out West – which makes this entire article rather academic – so I suppose in classic Politics Cymru style, we shall have to wait and see....
Dewi Un
23 comments:
I tend to agree. There's too much hubris in some sections of Plaid nowadays.
What's the betting that Labour ditches their present candidate and puts up Lee Waters?
If Plaid had sense, they'd trump that with Angharad Mair: entrepreneur, intelligent, communicator, independent. Not an apparatchik. Go down well in all parts of the constituency. Scare the sh*ts out of Labour, and maybe the Plaid managerialists too.
But Dewi....where did you carry out your research? Was it scientific? You might get a similar reaction in Meirioneth as well.....
Edwards is local, Angharad Mair hasn't been a Plaid member for a full year yet and thus can't stand under Plaid's rules.
The race is in fact between Jonathan Edwards and one of the local councillors (not sure which one but an older man).
Angharad Mair could be a huge asset for Plaid in a seat like Carmarthen West, where she comes from. Outside of Welsh-speaking areas though, she is irrelevant and more or less unknown.
Has somebody been feeding you young journalist students spin in this anti-Angharad Mair line?
Since when has Carmarthen East & Dinefwr not been Welsh-speaking? Since when has Angharad Mair not been local? She comes from Carmarthen and works in Llanelli! She fronts television programmes (Heno/Wedi Saith) set up in order to appeal in places like the Aman and Gwendraeth Valleys.
Anagharad Mair is a popular business woman with decades of experience as a charismatic communicator. The other guy is a party hack.
I think Angharad Mair might be the first of Plaid's British MPs to speak Welsh in the self-styled 'Mother of Parliaments'. None of the men have in all these years, have they?
Maybe it takes a strong woman, just like Jill Evans did in the European parliament.
Ultimately these blog comments mean nothing, it's an internal selection by local party members.
Dewi I think you have show a bit of political wetness here. Firstly if Jonathan Edwards won the nomination he is a local boy. Angharad Mair is also from Carmarthenshire.
Mostly though you are very blinkered in response. You say that there is no loyalty to plkaid but forget to mention that in the same constituency Plaid have Rhodri Glyn Thomas with a majority greater than Adam Price and behind Dafydd El the highest in Wales. At a council level they also have the highest number of councillors of any party. Far greater than Labour. Equally their result at the european election was over 3 times the vote of Labour and at least double that of the nearest opponent?
No offence but this post does seem to be ignorant of any knowledge of the area?
Also Dewi ignoring the points i make above showing your lack of understanding of Plaid in the area Labour are in dire straights. They lost to the Tories in the seat at European level and have had two candidates withdraw already. One for anti welsh slurs, insulting two thirds of the voters and one for bullying a teenager.
"Anagharad Mair is a popular business woman with decades of experience as a charismatic communicator. The other guy is a party hack"
A party hack? Jonathan Edwards works for Citizens Advice?
Edwards is an Amman Valley boy who still lives and plays his sport locally despite working in Cardiff. As the architect of the party's rise in the constituency and the party's modernisation project nationally he is the natural choice to take over from Price.
this is a batlle for the soul of Plaid in the constituency between the left and right. the nomination of Price as candidate for the 2001 General Election marked a stratgic shift to a progressive candidate. Jonathan Edwards comes from the same political background, his father a prominent Plaid County Councillor was a Trade Union shop steward durign his working life.
Angharad Mair would be a radical departure and a signifigant shift to the right for the party locally. A more traditional cultural nationalist.
This might appeal to some elements of the party's membership locally, but how would this go down with voters in the Amman and gwendraeth valleys?
Jonathan Edwards isn't only born and bred locally, he was instrumental in helping Adam Price turn a Labour seat into a Plaid stronghold. His knowledge of the political landscape in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, as well as the public itself and having been a long-term part of a winning team, make him the only choice to replace Adam.
I don't like Jonathan Edwards - he's a rampant nationalist and I don't care for that. But give the guy credit, if he really has put all that hard work in, then surely he's the one that deserves a shot at the General Election ahead of this multi-millionaire beauty contestant that's been parachuted in by HQ?
It's got to be Angharad, surely? She's a steady, stable voice for a seat she knows well. I mean, with a Conservative Government on its way in, she's the ideal choice to work with the Tories on their level. They'll have a common agenda and speak the same language. Perhaps she'll have the influence to secure a permenant future for Wales as part of a federal UK.
In response to Anonymous's comment about the blog poster's ignornace. It should be said that maybe he / she is the one who is ignorant of the constituency?
As he / she points out Angharad Mair is also from Carmarthenshire -she lives in Carmarthen and works in Llanelli. Neither of those places are actually in the constituency anymore.
As the Dewi (rightly in my opinion)points out Ammanford and Llandeilo are now the main towns in the area.
If Angaharad Mair wanted to be a local candidate she should stand in either the Llanelli seat or Carmarthen West. She is'nt a local girl.
This is all pointless anyway because Jonathan Edwards will win hands down, and local councillor Rhys Davies will come second.
I think this is all pointless anyway. None of the candidates have sufficiently Welsh names to truly succeed in promoting Plaid for the years to come.
Jonthan Edwards and Rhys Davies are virtually in the Labour party anyway. Socialists!
Edwards is the candidate Labour don't want to fight. He has taken them on directly in the constituency from 1999. He is the mastermind behind both of Adam's electoral victories. From a position of total control they are left with only two county councillors.
If Jonathan has been so important to Adam Price and Rhodri Glyn's electoral success, why aren't either backing his campaign? There is growing speculation locally that Adam is backing Angharad. The extension of the opening of nominations for the constituency and the blocking of local female candidates from the national register indicates that elements of the party centrally are trying to parachute Angharad Mair - Adam would have to be central to this.
All the sensible locals are backing Jonathan Edwards.
No-one else has a serious a chance because he's extremely well-respected locally.
I think plaid insiders comments show how little insider knowledge he/she has. Rhodri Glyn and Adam are not backing anyone which is the right thing to do. As far as I remember Rhodri Glyn didn't back anyone when Adam Price won the nomination back before the 2001 election.
"As he / she points out Angharad Mair is also from Carmarthenshire -she lives in Carmarthen and works in Llanelli. Neither of those places are actually in the constituency anymore."
Ummm, both both are in Carmarthenshire which is exactly the point that was made?
Both maybe in Carmarthenshire but neither are in the constituency of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr - which is where the candidate will stand.
You should actually read things all the way through before commenting
I have had the pleasure of knowing Jonathan Edwards (from school days). He is most definatly on the left of the party but some of the comments linked to this post are way too simplistic. Joni was (and still is) a very proud Welshman and to try and draw a great divide between cultural and political wings in Plaid is just overstating things.
I'm not a member of Plaid and no longer even live in Ammanford BUT if I did I would be very happy with Jonathan Edwards as my MP.
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