Thursday, 17 September 2009

Constituency Spotlight: Llanelli

No one knows when GB will eventually announce that election – with doomsday edging closer groups of people (form journalists to local activists) are huddling together to talk about how they’ll tackle the beast. It’s likely that we’ll all be holding our collective breath for some time (my prediction is an April election) however with arguably some of the most intriguing battlegrounds of the election here in Wales we thought it would be a good idea to have a look at them (premature maybe – but what the hey).

Llanelli

Here are some numbers about Llanelli

2005 General Election

Party –Candidate – Votes - % - Swing

Labour –Nia Griffith – 16,952 – 46.9% - -1.7
Plaid – Neil Baker – 9,358 – 26.5% - -4.4
Con – Adrian Phillips - 4,844 -13/7% - +4.2
Lib Dem – Ken Rees - 4,550 – 12.9% - +4.4

Majority – 7,234 (20.4%)
Turnout – 35, 344 (63.5%/+1.2)

2001 General Election

Party – Candidate – Votes - % - Swing

Labour – Denzil Davies -17,586- 48.6% - -9.3
Plaid – Dyfan Jones – 11,183 – 30.9% - +11.9
Conservative – Simon Hayes -3,442 – 9.5% - -2.6
Lib Dem – Ken Rees – 3,065 – 8.5% --0.7
Green – Jan Cliff – 515 – 1.4% - N/A
Socialist Labour – John Willock – 407 – 1.1% --0.7

Majority – 6,403 (17.7%)
Turnout - 36,198 (62.3% / -8.4)

2009 Euro Election

Plaid Cymru - 5990

Labour Party - 4053

Conservatives - 2063

UKIP - 1846

Liberal Democrats - 946

Others - 2466

Turnout - 17429 (around 31%)

What Else do we know?

Plaid Cymru think they can win here and are therefore taking Llanelli very seriously – here’s a Tweet today from one of their local party workers:

“Interested in canvassing Llanelli for @drmyfanwydavies - please get intouch with @natashacody - Think Different. Think Plaid. Think Myfanwy.”


“Think Different. Think Plaid. Think Myfanwy. - Join the Llanelli campaign team today, contact @natashacody #plaidcymru - @drmyfanwydavies


They’ve shoved their candidate Dr Myfanwy Davies in front of every camera going (I think she’s been on Pawb a'i Farn more times than Dewi Llwyd!) and are doing their best to raise her profile.

The 2005 election result was not what Plaid wanted – they hope that this time round they can replicate and improve on that 11% swing we saw in 2001 and take the seat from Labour.

Why Llanelli?

The result in Llanelli will be a strong indicator as to how bad the night will be for Labour – hold here and it may not be a disaster after all. Lose here and it could be an example of a worrying trend across the country.


Dewi Un

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2 comments:

Dewi Harries said...

Put £50 on Myfanwy at Ladbrookes at 5/2 yesterday. Not bad value.

Hedd said...

Here is Myfanwy's website address:

http://www.myfanwydavies.org/