Playing politics with the referendum

Today, this morning to be more precise, Carwyn Jones finally let us all know that he is in favour of an Autumn referendum – late October if possible. Not only has he set out his preference for the date but he’s kindly provided Cheryl Gillan with a potential preamble and question:

“At the moment the Assembly can make laws about some, but not all, things which only affect people in Wales.

Parliament has decided that the Assembly should be able to pass its own laws for Wales on all devolved subjects. But this can only happen if voters in Wales support this in a referendum.

The devolved subjects include health and social services, housing, education and local government. The laws could not be about social security, defence or foreign affairs.

Do you want the Assembly to have the power now to pass laws on all the subjects which are devolved to Wales?

YES

NO”

Is it coincidence or design that it is now Carwyn Jones decides to act on this issue? Now that the Secretary of State is from another party? A party that has struggled to fight off its traditional anti devolution stereotype. Surely Mr Jones isn’t playing politics with this issue?

But you have to ask if Peter Hain was still in office would the First Minister have made such an announcement? What Carwyn Jones’s statement does is put pressure on the Secretary of State to ‘push through’ the referendum process to try and ensure an Autumn vote. If (as I suspect will happen) the vote is sometime after October 2010 expect Welsh Labour to start accusing the ConDem coalition of ‘blocking’ the vote.

If Carwyn Jones has listened to anything that Mrs Gillan has said up to this point – or incidentally what she has said in response to his statement – then he knows that it’s unlikely the referendum will happen this October. Does this mean that the referendum is going to become a victim of cross boarder government squabbling? Is this the spirit of co-operation that we’ve all been hearing about recently?

The cross party mudslinging has already begun. Peter Black of the Liberal Democrats (here) and Jonathan Morgan of the Conservatives (here) placing the blame of a delayed vote firmly at Peter Hain’s doorstep.

It’s long been accepted that for a successful ‘YES’ campaign there needs to be good and strong teamwork between all the parties.

Those who are hoping for that outcome will no doubt be pleased to see the spirit of co-operation getting off to such a good start…

Dewi Un

Image courtesy of Dogfael @ http://www.flickr.com/photos/dogfael/3369342425/

How long does it take to write a letter?

I’m sure as First Minister there’s a lot to do.

Searching for your security pass takes it’s time. And there are all those Plenary sessions to attend on Tuesdays and Wednesdays (not this week though because it is the half-term recess after all).

But amongst all that chaos, one would imagine Carwyn Jones might find an hour in the course of a week to sit down and draft a few pages to Mr Hain at the Wales Office to formally let him know the Assembly have approved a referendum vote on further law-making powers .

I guess not.

Dewi Tri

Some thoughts on the Assembly vote

Hello everyone! Many apologies for the light-blogging of late - there are good excuses I assure you!

But yesterday's vote at the Senedd has probably not escaped your notice - and as the vote was passed the press released came flooding our way - here's what the 'big players' made of yesterday's vote:

Dafydd-Elis-Thomas (Presiding Officer):

"This is an historic day in the journey that is devolution in Wales,” said Presiding Officer, Lord Dafydd-Elis-Thomas AM.

"It will now be up to the people of Wales, provided the Secretary of State for Wales agrees, to decide whether we move to the next phase of devolution."

Carwyn Jones (First Minister):

"“I believe this Assembly has shown - and this government has shown - that we can handle legislation responsibly. We have shown that we can deliver quality Welsh laws that can make a real difference to people’s lives in Wales. Today’s vote seeks to build on the real and tangible benefits that devolution has delivered for the people of Wales over the last decade."

Ieuan Wyn Jones (Deputy First Minister):

"People in Wales now believe that it is the Assembly rather than any other legislature which should make most of the decisions that affect their daily lives. And I am confident that if you ask people should the Assembly have more tools to do the job more effectively, then most people in Wales would say ‘yes’.

"If the Northern Ireland Assembly and the Scottish Parliament have powers to make laws without having to seek the consent from Westminster, then why should it be any different for us in Wales.

"We are proud that we have brought legislation closer to the people of Wales. But we know we can do more with the proper tools. We want to make laws in Wales, for Wales."

Peter Hain (Secretary of State for Wales):

"Carwyn and I have been working very closely together over the past two months to make progress on this issue. I fully support the First Minister's approach and now look forward to receiving his letter so I can begin the necessary preparatory work to take this forward. In the meantime, as Carwyn and I have said jointly, we both agree that the priority in the coming months will be the General Election, the outcome which will be so important for Wales. We must secure economic recovery for Wales, not choke it off with hasty cuts to Government spending.‬"

Kirsty Williams (Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats):

"While the General Election and issues such as the economy, our health service and schools must take precedence over procedural issues, this doesn’t mean that the yes campaign cannot start getting organised so that we can be quick out of the blocks when the referendum is called.

"Any campaign for the referendum must make it clear that the next step is not about independence and will not result in more spending on the Assembly – but that it will simply give Wales the tools to do the jobs we were elected to do – to make lives better for people in Wales"

Nick Bourne (Leader of the Welsh Conservatives):

"Today’s vote will enable people on both sides of the argument to have their say on the way Wales is governed.

"What is important now is that we get clarity and a resolution to the current unsatisfactory LCO procedure so the Assembly can get to grips with the issues that matter to the people of Wales."

Elfyn LLwyd (Plaid Cymru leader in Westminster):

"It is clear from the three years that it has taken for Westminster to transfer legislation to Cardiff on the Welsh language, sustainable housing and the environment that the current LCO method of transferring powers is slow and unwieldy.

"Moreover the complex LCO system prevents the Assembly from taking ‘prompt action’.

"A positive outcome for the referendum will mean that Wales has a faster, more efficient and less wasteful system that serves our communities much better."

So Mr Hain! It's over to you...

Dewi Tri

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda – Happy New Year

First things first – all of us here at Politicscymru hope you all had a very happy Christmas and wish you a prosperous 2010.

Now to business. Back at work today busy trawling through the press releases that have gone unread over the past week. Carwyn Jones’ new year message was one such presser. Whilst containing nothing particularly groundbreaking the new First Minister had the following to say:

“2010 will see us looking to gain more powers for the Assembly to use for the benefit of the people of Wales” (Emphasis added)

So, is this the beginning of a new Welsh Labour line on the referendum? On its own probably not, but coupled with this statement from the new counsel-general it could be that Carwyn Jones is looking to make amends for his party’s recent flaky stance on the referendum date.

It’s a move that will no doubt help cement the ‘One Wales’ agreement, which has been on dodgy ground in recent months. Remember the deal was made between Rhodri and Ieuan not Carwyn so a change of stance on the referendum issue would no doubt help smooth the transition process, and appease any Plaid members who are still hankering for rebellion.

We’ll find out pretty quickly if Carwyn and his team are going to push for that Autumn referendum because they will need to start the ball rolling by the end of the month. Politically it makes perfect sense for Carwyn Jones to put his money where his mouth is. It can’t be worth risking the wrath of the opposition parties on this most contentious issue in his first few weeks in charge.

Whilst we sense a change in the air, no-one can be a 100% certain that the polcy has changed or is changing apart from Carwyn himself.

What we are certain of is that the clock ticking.

Dewi Un

Clear as Mud

So what is Welsh Labour’s stance on the timing of a referendum? Well if you read this statement sent out yesterday lunchtime by Peter Hain, Rhodri Morgan and Gary Owen (Welsh Labour Chair) it seems obvious.

“ Our internal policy process has already begun: Welsh Labour’s Welsh Joint Policy Committee has met, prioritised the need to campaign for a General Election victory, and agreed to start considering the All Wales Convention report in detail as a prelude to stepping-up wider Party consultation with AMs and MPs, councillors, trade unionists and members as soon as the General Election is over.“

Holding on this long would make it difficult to foresee a referendum before the next Assembly elections in 2011, let alone a referendum in 2010, and in particular the Autumn of 2010 which is the favoured option of the opposition (and Plaid Cymru)

But wait – fast forward a couple of hours, in which Rhodri Morgan took a battering in Plenary, the One Wales coalition started creaking and scores of angry AMs and advisors were pacing up and down the Senedd and we have a different picture.

Another joint statement – this time by Rhodri and Ieuan Wyn Jones reading:

“All options for the timing of a referendum remain open... nothing has been ruled in or ruled out, including, if it proved practical, a referendum in the autumn”

So what is the stance of Welsh Labour? If they want to wait until after an election before making any moves then the above statement is a falsehood – because they wouldn’t have the requisite time, which means they are ruling an Autumn referendum out. So the question remains, do they want to wait until after a general election or not?

Peter Hain is talking to Assembly today so hopefully things will be far clearer soon - or alternatively they could stay just as they are, clear as mud.

Dewi Un

Plaid vs. The Secretary of State

Elfyn Llwyd has issued a harsh attack on the recently reinstated Peter Hain in which he accuses the Secretary of State of being out of touch with the Welsh Labour Party, Plaid Cymru and the Welsh Assembly.

Mr Llwyd says: “Only a matter of days after being re-installed as Secretary of State Peter Hain is continuing where he left off with his one-man campaign to stall the devolution process, and undermine the One Wales Government which he always opposed.”

It comes after Peter Hain said that the referendum on full law making powers is unlikely to be held before the 2011 deadline.

Dewi Tri

Hold your horses - says Dafydd Elis-Thomas

Anyone who bought today’s Western Mail will be in no doubt as to the stance held by Lord Dafydd Elis-Thomas on the referendum. The headline reads “Don’t rush law making referendum and mess it all up now”. The Presiding Officer and former leader of Plaid Cymru has always stuck with his conscience and is renowned for not always towing the party line, and today’s outburst is surely just another example. It’s not long remember since his position as Presiding Officer was in doubt following his comments about a newly appointed Israeli ambassador.

Lord Elis-Thomas says in the article that he feels 2011 is too soon to hold the referendum and believes that a vote on the future of law making powers in the Assembly should only be held when there is a clear 20% lead in the polls for the “Yes” campaign.

I wonder how his opinion sits with the rest of his party who have committed to a referendum at the start of or even before the 2011 term. I also wonder how his opinions will have been taken by Bethan Jenkins who (as is well documented by our blog) is desperately trying to get people thinking about a “Yes” campaign.

His timing seems a bit random to me. At this time of year no one is really concentrating on political news, what with shopping, wrapping and taking Woolworth sales to the cleaners to be done. Surely this is the worst time to make such a statement, if you want to make an impact? And with so long to go before the All Wales Convention reports back and no focus groups being held until January will people remember this article? I can’t see the Western Mail running the same headline again in five months' time. I’m not sure therefore that Lord Elis-Thomas is really achieving anything by doing this now.

He also takes the opportunity to have a swipe at Nick Bourne and his iPod by saying that it’s “reprehensible” that individuals receive allowances from Parliamentary bodies (although he accepts that he has benefited from this system) and is calling for a reform.

I suppose that the article will at least raise public awareness of the referendum debate, as it gets a good chunk of the Western Mail's front page. Whether people remember what he says however is another matter.

Dewi Un

Interesting point you make about the Convention there, Dewi Un.

And I feel that Lord Elis-Thomas has neglected this issue a little. Surely the whole point of the AWC is to provide the opportunity for active campaigning from both sides before a referendum is held towards the end of the current Assembly term. Failure to do so would undermine the Convention's role and would take us into a new Assembly term under a new Government with a new agenda (in London as well as in the Bay).

Where the devolution debate then goes from there will be anybody's guess.

Dewi Dau

One Wales “Unravelling”?

Peter Black has beat me to the blog tonight!

Former Welsh Secretary, Peter Hain has just been on the BBC's Dragon's Eye saying that One Wales is not committed to a referendum on more powers - it's just an aspiration.

Is that really what Plaid Cymru's grassroots members had in mind when they entered into One Wales?

Mr Black's take on the situation is that the coalition could be unravelling over a matter of semantics. It's not an unreasonable conclusion to draw...

If Labour continue to procrastinate will a time come when backbenchers like Bethan Jenkins get fed up of being yanked around by their more moderate leadership and decide to ask if they're really getting a good deal?

Dewi Tri

Getting things off my chest!

Just been watching the mighty Liverpool labour to yet another unconvincing 1-0 win. However I spent some time speaking to an enlightened individual at the same time. Having bounced some ideas off this middle-aged and somewhat crumbling wall I came up with some questions of my own.

Given that inevitably she will be campaigning for a 'yes' vote in any referendum on granting Wales extra powers, was Bethan Jenkins strategically right to launch this campaign?

Yes:

• We now have a debate: a real 2-sided contest and "no Vacuum" (see podcast 2) in which the All Wales Convention is operating.
  
• The 'danger' during this economic crisis is that we all look to Westminster for leadership at a time when people think/realise that London is where the real power lies...
• ...and if this is the case, what hope does Cardiff have of gaining support for more power to be transferred its way?
• Therefore, our youngest AM may just be trying to refocus people's attentions on gaining more power for our little 'insignificant-at-time-of-economic-crisis' Senedd. How noble. How admirable. How politically astute.

  But...

No:

• She may have highlighted a split in the Labour Party, who are supposed to campaign as one voice in favour of a 'yes' vote in any referendum. The One Wales agreement says so!
  
• Even her own party may be angry with her for 'going rogue'. Plaid had not said anything so far - save for Adam Price who's conveniently placed far enough from Wales - and would have wanted to save this sort of talk for when more pressing matters (did anyone mention we're heading into a recession?) are out of the way. Surely Plaid will only begin to fight the whole 'referendum campaign thing' when they think they can mobilise sufficent and telling support for it.

While people's minds are on Woolworths, VAT, and Alistair Darling is it really the right time to begin asking questions about enhancing Wales' powers? The big issue now is the economy (be sure to let me know if I'm pointing out the obvious) and since the main powers in this area remain in Westminster, it's normal that people are focusing on London.

So is Bethan Jenkins right in trying to bring the attention back onto the constitutional question and perhaps in suggesting that Wales needs more powers to be able to deal with recent job losses? Or should she instead wait until all this doom and gloom is over and look foward to the time when only the shiny question of enhancing the constitutional settlement is left unanswered?
As always, all your comments are welcome.

Dewi Dau

Bethan Jenkins kick-starts 'Yes' Campaign: 'Poyning' the way.

Anybody else never heard of Poyning's Law?

Apparently it's an appropriate way for describing the current complexities of the LCO system in Wales. Dewi Un will be fascinated!

Also interesting to see that somebody has finally launched a "pro-yes" campaign ahead of any referendum on getting law-making powers for the Assembly. Perhaps now we can hear both sides of the argument: with the "No" campaign having been launched yonks ago!

Of course Politics Cymru will be keeping an eye on all the developments so you don't have to.

Dewi Dau