Friday, 2 January 2009

Mirror mirror on the wall what will 2009 bring us all?

Early on in a New Year is always the time to consider what has been and what will become. Seeing as we are relative new comers to the Welsh blogging scene we felt it best to stick to this time honoured tradition and give you our thoughts (even though you’re probably fed up of reading reviews and previews!)

Predictions, as Vaughan Roderick rightly says, are always a tricky business. Also given my track record (Jenny Randerson anyone?) I can see the attractions of not making any, but where’s the fun in that?

So here it goes, mirror mirror on the wall what will 2009 bring us all?

Nick Bourne’s last day as Welsh Conservative leader. Given Nick Bourne’s gaffes in 2008 (described admirably by Dewi Dau) everybody (except for himself) knows he’s on borrowed time. The only difficulty is guessing how and when he will go and most importantly who will replace him. Unlike Vaughan I’m putting my money on Jonathan Morgan to win out over Darren Millar, and sooner rather than later.

Rhodri’s retirement plans will be delayed and he will still be in charge this time next year. He’s a shrewd politician is old Rhodders and he must know that no one in his party at the moment has the stature to fill his boots. He might be craving to get down to some gardening and only have to worry about getting to the pub in time for Scrum V but for the good of his party he will surely stay on until a natural successor is apparent, whether that happens in 2009 is another story.

A contributing factor in Rhodri Morgan’s plans are of course the European Parliamentary elections that take place this year. The outcome of which must surely affect his decision. Turnout is low for these elections which doesn’t bode well for Labour, but with Mr Brown on the bounce, and UK-wide issues in play, I don’t think it will be too catastrophic a result. In Wales the Labour party will lose one MEP, to be picked up by the Lib Dems (yes I said it).

Plaid Cymru will be put under increasing pressure from its core vote over the faltering Welsh Language LCO. If statements from within the Welsh Affairs Select Committee are to be believed then it’s not likely to go through as planned. I hear the straining of the One Wales agreement.

Because of this and the countless other LCOs stuck in Westminster I foresee a lot more talk about them. Which is good news for geeks like me who have a rough idea what’s going on, but it cant be good news for 99% of the public who just want to know what the Assembly can do, not what it wants to do. (I also see our First Minister getting more annoyed at having to answer questions based on them.)

Kirsty Williams' first full year in power: can she get people excited about the Lib Dems in the Assembly? Probably not. (This is not a contradiction with my previous prediction on the European elections because UK-wide issues are most salient in those elections.)

And of course:

Camplawn i Gymru (another Grandslam)! And a Cardiff City promotion!

Let me know what you think 2009 will bring,

Hwyl am y tro,

Dewi Un

Image used Courtesy of Juliemonster x @ Flickr


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