Vaughan's look ahead to 2009

A handful of predictions for the coming year, made by Vaughan Roderick (begrudgingly):

I'm always in a bad mood on New Year's Eve, and in one word here's the reason - predictions. For some reason there's a tradition for poeple like me to put their head on the block and predict what might happen over the next twelve months. This puts somebody in quite a predicament.

It's quite easy to play safe and form a list of things that are likely to happen. I could predict that Nick Bourne's trials and tribulations will continue and that Rhodri will keep his word and retire - but what would be the point of that? I could be a little more daring and predict that Jonathan Morgan and Carwyn Jones will be the Conservative and Labour leaders at the end of 2009, or braver still by swapping those names for Darren Millar and Edwina Hart. Everything's possible - but who am I to say?

Even if I did make daring predictions which turned out to be accurate what about the things that weren't foreseen? Who, twelve months ago, would have predicted that Gordon Brown would nationalise most of our banks? Not even Vince Cable!

But tradition is tradition and so begrudgingly here's handful of predictions.

Nick Bourne will resign as Conservative leader by the Spring. There will be a leadership election to decide who will succeed him with Darren Millar narrowly beating the favorite, Jonathan Morgan.

There will be increased dissatisfaction from the Plaid Cymru ranks at the coalition deal with Labour. The delays over the language LCO and reluctance in doing anything about a referendum will lead to calls for the coalition deal to be reconsidered after Rhodri Morgan's departure.

As Labour's Assembly members worry about losing power Huw Lewis will fail to secure enough nominations to stand for the leadership and Carwyn Jones will be crowned leader unopposed.

As for the Lib Dems...NO! Enough is enough. What's the point?

Translation by Dewi Dau