In case you were wondering...

I feel a little like the voice-over man on the apprentice, here are your candidates.

Conservative Party - Plaid Geidwadol Cymru

1. Kay Swinburne
2. Evan David Lewis Price
3. Emma Louise Greenow
4. David Chipp

The Green Party - Plaid Werdd

1. Jake Griffiths
2. Kay Roney
3. Ann Were
4. John Matthews

The Labour Party - Y Blaid Lafur

1. Derek Vaughan
2. Lisa Stevens
3. Rachel Elizabeth Maycock
4. Leighton Veale

Liberal Democrats - Democratiaid Rhyddfrydol Cymru

1. Alan Andrew Shaile Butt Philip
2. Kevin Domonic Lee O'Connor
3. Nicholas John Tregoning
4. Jacqueline Radford

Jury Team

1. Paul Joseph Sabanskis
2. James Gareth Eustace
3. Neil Morgan
4. Steven Phillip Partridge

Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales

1. Jill Evans
2. Eurig Wyn
3. Ioan Bellin
4. Natasha Asghar

British National Party

1. Ennys Hughes
2. Laurence Reid
3. Clive Bennett
4. Kevin Anthony Edwards

United Kingdom Independence Party - Plaid Annibyniaeth Y Deyrnas Unedig

1. John Andreas Bufton
2. David Maybery Bevan
3. Kevin Phillip Mahoney
4. David William Lloyd Rowlands

Socialist Labour Party (Arthur Scargills party)

1. Robert Charles English
2. Richard George Booth
3. Liz Screen
4. Judith Rachel Sambrook

Christian Party "proclaiming Christ's Lordship" -- Plaid Gristinogol Cymru "datgan Arglwyddiaeth Crist"

1. Jeffrey David Green
2. David Philip Griffiths
3. Alun Clive Owen
4. John Harrold

No2EU:Yes to Democracy

1. Robert David Griffiths
2. Robert Williams
3. Laura Picand
4. Trevor Arnold Jones

No need to thank me...

Dewi Un

N.B No Libertas party - they couldn't get the necessary £5,000 together in time

The Lib Dems: party poopers?

(Continued from previous post)

And surely we can forget about the recession as well, just for one day. Can't we Kirsty?

"10 years of devolution has been a step forward for Wales. We have moved closer to the people's parliament that Wales should have and the Welsh Liberal Democrats hope that this process can be accelerated in the near future.

But today is no day for backslapping and cosy congratulation. We're in the middle of a devastating recession and we face years of huge public spending cuts. After 10 years of rising budgets, building up public debt during the credit-fuelled boom years, this Assembly must now take a reality check."

And there's more:

"In assessing the success of the National Assembly for Wales we must examine the legacy that ten years has left: a legacy of the continued poverty for many welsh communities, of unaffordable higher education, of vital health service failures and a lack of resilience to peak oil and climate change.

It is the next two decades that will reveal the damage this legacy has done to Wales."

Ah well, never mind.

Dewi Dau

The two Dafydds 10 years on

This just in from Plaid Cymru's honorary president, Dafydd Wigley:

"10 years ago today was one of the most exciting days in my political career.

For over 70 years Plaid had been campaigning for a Welsh Parliament and despite its weaknesses, which were apparent even then, the prospect of Welsh politicians finally being responsible for the destiny of our nation was truly remarkable.

Of course we all had to wait until the following day for the count to take place but it was possible to sense the silent earthquake that was on its way and everyone knew that Welsh politics would never be the same again."

Lovely stuff. Nice to see a political figure able to forget about partisan divides on a day like today, when all four parties will be celebrating the 10th anniversary of the Assembly's first elections.

But then the party's actual president, Dafydd Iwan has also had his say:

"I, along with many others who had campaigned for a Welsh parliament for so long, saw 1999 as a great step forward.

But be under no illusion, there are still many vital steps ahead of us until Wales gets what it deserves.

For most of the last ten years, we have had weak Labour governments in Westminster and Cardiff who have failed to deliver for the people of Wales.

We now need real powers for the Assembly to defend us from the whims of future Tory or Labour governments in London."

Never mind, I suppose politics just wouldn't be politics without a bit of politics.

Dewi Dau

Civil War

And now a more serious message from BBC Wales' Welsh Affairs Editor - apparently intent on disrupting my revision!

Politicians hate answering rhetorical questions or at least pretend to hate them if they wish to avoid giving an answer! But what if a rhetorical question involves a situation that's likely to happen and what if the situation is key to the future of Wales?

That's the scenario for you. By October 2010 it's quite possible that the UK will have a Conservative government. In such circumstances apparently two thirds of the members in the Bay would vote in favour of holding a referendum on gaining full legislative powers for the Assembly. There aren't enough Conservative members to block such a move and besides more than one Tory AM has told me they would ignore any whip to vote against a referendum.

Given those circumstances would the Secretary of State, Cheryl Gillan (or perhaps Jonathan Evans) reject the application? Peter Hain was of the opinion that no Secretary of State would dare do so. Apparently that was also the opinion Wyn Roberts' survey of the party's devolution policy until a few Conservative bigwigs got hold of the report and deleted one or two crucial clauses.

At present the Conservatives are preparing their manifesto for the general election. There's increasing pressure on Nick Bourne to ensure the document contains a specific and definite promise that the Secretary of State would not reject demands for a referendum. According to one forthright Conservative failure to do so would be disastrous and would allow the other parties to paint the Tories as an anti-Wales party: "if Nick Bourne loses the battle or refuses to fight it, then all the work he has done over the last decade will have been undone."

Translation by Dewi Dau

Lembit's breakfast

A little gem from Vaughan Roderick's blog:

Why on earth do people not like poor Lembit? Al Murray the 'Pub Landlord' is the latest to condemn the Montgomery member according to the Times.

"If I don't ever have to interview Öpik again it would be too soon," Murray told Geoff Lloyd on Absolute Radio. "He was a bit of a twit. He came on thinking, 'I'll knock some lumps off this chap' and you sort of think 'that's not going to happen because we've spent all week sharpening this knife'."

It's unlikely Lembit will respond. He's too busy offering health advice to Daily Sport readers.

"Remember, you can't catch pig flu from eating pig meat. However bad things get, we'll still have bacon sandwiches."

The BNP’s chances of a Welsh victory

"We certainly look at Wales as the next target."

Those the words of BNP spokesman Simon Darby ahead of the European elections next month – words that will undoubtedly send a shiver down the spine of a fair few in mainstream politics.

The comments came in response to Neil Kinnock’s warning to the Labour party that the far-right nationalists will be the beneficiaries of their in-fighting.

But what are the real prospects of the BNP holding a Welsh seat in the next European Parliament. Well the numbers are interesting (to a political anorak like me).

Here’s the result from 2004:

Labour - 297,810 (148,905)
Conservative - 177,771
Plaid - 159,888
UKIP - 96,677
Lib Dem - 96,116
Greens - 32,761
BNP - 27,135
Others – 29,528

The indication this time is that Labour is likely to lose votes both to other parties and from their core supporters staying at home.

The other party that are likely to lose votes this time around is UKIP who don’t have the same momentum behind their campaign this time around. So where do their votes go?

The Tories will certainly be hoping to pick up a few and they probably will – the question is whether they can pick up enough votes to overtake Labour. Or indeed could Plaid?

The fourth seat is the one that’s up in the air.

IF Labour get more votes than the Tories, and Plaid remain the only party to get more than half the number of the votes they get everything stays the same.

IF Labour lose the first popular vote they will have lost in Wales for more than half a century and they’re overtaken by the Tories, and Plaid remain the only party to get more than half the number of votes then there will be 2 Tories returned to Europe with one Labour and one Plaid.

IF another party – be it the Liberal Democrats, the BNP or even the Green party – get more than half the number of votes of the leading party they will gain that crucial 4th seat.

That’s a tall order. If (yes another “if”) the leading party get as many votes as Labour did last time (297,810) the fourth party would have to get at least 148,906 votes to stand any chance of a seat - although due to turnout and a more divided vote this number could well be considerably smaller but lets take it as a benchmark for now. Here’s what those other parties would have to gain:

Lib Dem – 52,790
Greens – 116,145
BNP – 121,771

That’s quite a big swing for any of those parties but it’s not necessarily impossible…

This could well be an interesting race.

Dewi Tri

Career Suicide - Testing, Testing 1,2,3,

I was in need of testing a new gadget that I’ve got hold of so I’m here in the Bay, supping a Corona waiting for a friend to join me for a drink, reflecting on a really fun week of work experience (spot the nifty camerawork on Dragons Eye!). So what to blog about to test this new piece of kit?

Well, highlight of the week has to be Alun Davies and his career suicide! The one time Plaid enthusiast announced Tuesday morning that he intends to stand for the Labour nomination in Blaenau Gwent, he came out all guns blazing slagging Trish Law off. The most memorable quote in my mind was his description of her as “invisible especially when she’s on her feet” he said she was a “woeful” AM and she should be “ashamed” - pretty strong from the Mid and West Wales member . He described his contribution to the Assembly as “groundbreaking” and amidst several mentions of his Tredegar heritage claimed that he could represent the constituency much better than Trish Law.

Why has Alun Davies done this then? As I have been reminded of on several occasions this week, Blaenau Gwent politics is poisonous, the Labour party there is in disarray with several high profile defections recently. Going on history Alun Davies can’t even be sure of securing the nomination let alone winning the vote come election time, what is he to do then? Trot back to Mid and West Wales and say “oh don’t worry that was all a joke, I really only care about the people of Mid and West Wales, honestly”? I’m sure that would play well with the voters there.
So why risk it? As top dog on the list in the Mid West he’s virtually guaranteed to be sitting comfortably in the chamber after 2011. It may be that young Mr Davies feels the need to prove his Labour credentials to those who still suspect him of harbouring nationalist loyalties (See Ordovicius' brilliant You Tube clip) or it may be an attempt o prove himself to get a Cabinet position next time around, who knows? I’m not sure if Alun Davies really knows!

And what’s Trish Law's response to all this commotion? “Bring it on”.

Dewi Un

p.s looks like the old new technology worked! Nice…

Cuts? What Cuts?

Dr Eurfyl Ap Gwilym told the World yesterday that Universal public services in Wales face a tricky future, either they remain but get worse, or they maintain standards but become not so Universal (i.e. means tested). He indicated that given the financial settlement for Wales, big projects like free prescriptions for all, free school breakfasts (free laptops), and the M4 relief road would all have to (cue that Queen song) bite the dust.

So what does Ieuan Wyn Jones (IWJ) make of his economic guru's thoughts? Well on last night's Dragon's Eye programme he seemed to agree with him, saying that Wales was looking at tough times well into the next decade - pretty strong stuff. So where would these cuts be made? Nowhere apparently - no job cuts and no slowdown in capital expenditure. Now, no-one wants to hear that job cuts have to be made but isn't denial worse?

Am I the only one who thinks there's a bit of tension in what we heard from IWJ? On the one hand he said that public services will be severely affected, whilst on the other he refused to accept that job cuts and capital cuts are inevitable. Can the WAG who have made £600 million in savings over the last four years really expect to make £600 million savings A YEAR over the next few?

IWJ passionately defended Universality of services like free prescriptions and again said that One Wales projects would not be shelved, what we essentially heard was public services face a tough time but they will stay exactly the same, hmmm.

I hope he's right and public service job cuts are avoided but surely he must understand why people are a bit sceptical.

Dewi Un

The proverbial is bound to hit the fan...

An employee of Morrisons in Holyhead has been prevented form speaking Welsh at work according to Cymdeithas yr Iaith. The employee who has since left his job because of the policy said that he couldn't tolerate the situation any more.

Currently (with the Welsh Language LCO sitting on the WASC desks) there are no linguistic rights for Welsh speakers and so no legal avenues can be explored by the employee. But even the LCO only contains the freedom to speak Welsh in the workplace, not the right to speak Welsh in the workplace. This case will undoubtedly lead Cymdeithas yr Iaith to call for the LCO to be amended and strengthened, and will surely provide ammunition to those about to face scrutiny by the WASC about the LCO (a lot of abbreviations there sorry).

Going on past history (Thomas Cook anyone?) I can forsee a few picket lines outside Morrisons and I doubt the manager, who foolishly told this employee to stop speaking Welsh, will have foreseen what's likely to be coming his way.

Dewi Un