Ears to the ground

Vaughan in the know?

A few suggestions are beginning to reach us regarding the European elections. The turnout was less than 30% in most Welsh parliamentary constituencies. There are also rumours that Labour have fallen to third place in Llanelli and Carmarthen East losing out to Plaid Cymru and UKIP in both constituencies. We'll see!

Interesting that that the Tory Guto Bebb has predicted UKIP will grab a seat in Wales. For that to happen the party will have to come fourth and win 50% + 1 of the vote of whichever party is on top. I would guess that would require some 15% of the vote. The party got 10.5% last time. Time will tell.

PS: The English Democrats' candidate has been elected the mayor of Doncaster. Blimey these are strange elections!

Update: According to the main elections officer, 30.5% of the welsh electorate votes yesterday. That slightly more than expected

Translation by Dewi Dau

Podcast #24: End of an Era

And so as the academic year comes to an end, so too - it appears - does Labour's domination of British politics.

In this podcast we discuss reshuffles, European elections and turnouts with the usual wisdom and banter you've come to expect from Y Tri Dewi!

All this and more in our final podcast as poor and humble students!

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Thank you all for your continued support all year - diolch yn fawr!

Y Tri Dewi

Golwg 360 - Y Cwn a'r Goeden

Newydd gyrraedd adre o lawnsiad Golwg 360 yn y Senedd. Datblygiad bwysig i newyddiaduraeth Gymreig - gwasanaeth a all gystadlu yn erbyn y BBC yng Nghymru. Y gobaith nawr wrth gwrs yw y bydd yn llwyddiannus.

Mae’r wefan wedi cael hanes digon sigledig hyd yn hyn - gyda sawl Aelod Cynulliad (Alun Cairns y bore ma er enghraifft) yn cwestiynu pam fod y llywodraeth yn cyfrannu tuag at y fath fenter. Er hyn heno roedd cefnogaeth y llywodraeth i’r wefan yn gryf - Rhodri Morgan yno yn siarad am bwysigrwydd lluosogrwydd yn newyddiaduraeth Cymreig. Fe wnaeth Rhodri Morgan hefyd son am y berthynas bwysig rhwng y wasg a gwleidyddion a’i chymharu mewn ffordd ysgafn a chwn yn pisho (esgusodwch fy Ffrangeg) yn erbyn coeden - ond p'run ydy p'run? (Atebion ar gerdyn post plis.)

Paul Davies ac Eleanor Burnham oedd yno'n cynrychioli’r Cynulliad ac i gefnogi’r fenter (dwi’n siwr y gwnes i ddarllen yn ddiweddar bod Paul Davies yn erbyn cynlluniau Golwg 360?) ond tybed beth ydy rol y Cynulliad i gefnogi’r wasg ehangach yng Nghymru? Oes yna le i’r Cynulliad ariannu adrannau newyddion ITV ac S4C? Pa mor bell y dylen nhw fynd tybed? Fe fydd y dadlau yn cynyddu dros yr wythnosau nesa' wrth i adroddiadau ‘Digital Britain’ ac adroddiad gan y Cynulliad gael eu cyhoeddi.

Mae newyddiaduraeth Cymru mewn man diddorol ac yn sicr fe fydd yn newid llawer dros y misoedd a'r blynyddoedd nesa' - y gobaith heno, yw taw Golwg 360 yw’r cam cyntaf ar y ffordd i ddyfodol disglair i’r wasg Gymreig.

Dewi Un

P.S Rhaid i mi ganmol y buffet - brechdanau blasus a gwin hyfryd…

Who's your money on?

Well this is all very exciting isn't it. A day to go until the most international elections in history begin and here in Blighty another cabinet minister bites the dust.

Yesterday we got wind that Home Sec Jaqui Smith will be stepping down at the next cabinet reshuffle and today we hear that Hazel Blears, the communities secretary, is also resigning.

Who's next do you think? Darling? Harman? Brown himself?

Well here are a few odds for you (courtesy of Ladbrokes) :

First off: odds on when the next General Election will be held (I bet a few of these have shortened after Plaid's announcement yesterday!):

June 2009 - 101.00
July 2009 - 15.00
August 2009 - 41.00
September 2009 - 17.00
October 2009 - 4.00
November 2009 - 8.00
December 2009 - 101.00
January 2010 - 67.00
February 2010 - 51.00
March 2010 - 26.00
April 2010 - 21.00
May 2010 - 2.00
June 2010 - 17.00

To take over as Home Secretary:

Alistair Darling - 4/1
John Denham - 4/1
Sean Woodward - 4/1
David Blunkett - 7/1
Ed Balls - 7/1

Then there's this from Paddypower on when Gordon Brown will no longer be PM:

June to August 2009 - 5/4
September to November 2009 - 5/1
December 2009 to February 2010 - 8/1
March to June 2010 - evens
After June 2010 - 10/1

And then there's this - odds on who will be next Labour leader:

Alan Johnson - 5/4
David Miliband - 6/1
Harriet Harman - 13/2
E Miliband - 10/1
Jon Cruddas - 10/1
Jack Straw - 12/1
James Purnell - 14/1

or how about this one for an outside bet?

Tony Blair - 100/1

Well at least he knows how to win elections and has no expenses baggage to deal with!

If you see anymore interesting odds let us know!

Dewi Dau

image used courtesy of claudiogennari @ http://www.flickr.com/photos/27391161@N07/3531504778/

Plaid Cymru calls for General Election

So how many of you ticked the "Yes! C'mon Gordon!" box in our recent poll on whether it was time for the PM to call a General Election?

Well those of you did might just get your wish. Next week Plaid Cymru and the SNP are preparing to put David Cameron and Nick Clegg on the spot in a bid to get parliament dissolved.

They plan on using their allotted speaking time in Westminster to force this issue and will look for support on this from Conservative and Liberal forces.

This is what Plaid's Elfyn Llwyd has been saying today - he's got big plans for us all!

“This would be a precursor to a root and branch reform of the political system in Westminster.

“We in Plaid Cymru have long raised the issue of reform of the House of Lords but also reform of the first past the post system to a more democratic means of securing that membership of Parliament better reflects society.

“We also firmly believe that the time has come for fixed parliaments in Westminster and curbing the Royal prerogative. The expenses scandal is merely the boil on the skin of Parliament - much more in depth attention is required.”

In the meantime, the SNP's Angus Robertson says:

"This dissolution motion is about confidence in the whole Westminster political system which has been mired in the expenses scandal.

"The only way to sort this mess out is for Parliament to be dissolved and for the people to have their say in a general election. There can be no argument against the entire House of Commons submitting itself to a vote of the people who elected them.

"This political crisis was created by politicians, and the SNP and Plaid Cymru will give Parliament the chance to give the people their say."

This is of course a line that could well attract widespread support: people across the country (as any of you who watched last night's Pawb a'i Farn will know) are annoyed with the current scandal and would love the chance to tell their elected representatives exactly what they think of them.

But is this really the right thing for Britain's nationalist parties to be calling for? It's difficult to imagine a Tory government - and it remains likely that that is what we would have if a general election took place now - supporting nationalists' calls for further devolution/independence.

Is this merely political point scoring from Plaid and the SNP in the run up to the European elections? Could their strategy backfire spectacularly?

Thoughts?

Dewi Dau

Making a Splash

This article is from this week's Gair Rhydd - Cardiff University's student newspaper:

What did you think of our Twitterviews?

Stay tuned for more following the European elections!

Y Tri Dewi

More twists and turns for the language LCO

This from Vaughan

One of the Assembly's legislative committees will publish a report on the language LCO in a few days and between you and me they're not happy about the thing. The likelihood is that the committee will call for a much more extensive order.

The Welsh Affairs Select Committee is also considering the LCO at the moment. In contrast to some people's expectations (mainly Welsh Officers ministers), it appears that that committee will also back the principle that the Assembly should have full law-making powers over language issues.

After both committees publish their reports further talks will take place between the Assembly Government and the Welsh Office before the order is put before the Assembly and Parliament.

The LCO in its current form is a compromise between the government in the Bay and the Welsh Office. The Assembly Government had wanted to go much further. If both committees support that request will Welsh Office ministers be willing to listen or will it be personal opinions that count?

Translation by Dewi Dau

The Home Stretch

There are just 4 days to go until Wales and the rest of the UK go to the polls in this year's European election and there could well be a body blow for the Labour party if they lose their second seat here.

We had thought early on in the campaign that it would be the Tories to take advantage of Labour's weakness but since then the expenses scandal has come to light and Plaid have been attempting to distance themselves from the rest of the politicians at Westminster.

Could this be a strategy that would see them return a second MEP after all?

There's also been some praise for the Lib Dems' lead candidate on the campaign trail but to what extent that will help the party remains to be seen – the whole proceedings have been somewhat overshadowed by other events.

I'd be keen to know what you think's going to happen. It seems likely that Labour could lose enough votes but who do you think will gain that last seat.

As we head onto the home stretch it would appear to be anybody's game...

Dewi Tri

Podcast #23: A Grand Day Out!

It's another Friday Podcast and with the AMs off on their jollies we thought we'd take a trip down to Cardiff Bay where the Urdd Eisteddfod is drawing to a close.

We talk to Chris Moyles' producer Aled Haydn Jones and the Chair of the All Wales Convention Sir Emyr Jones Parry (two people who've probably never shared a sentence before...)

We're also talking about this week's rants from Jonathan Morgan and Ieuan Wyn Jones.

Enjoy the show!

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Y Tri Dewi