Politicians hate answering rhetorical questions or at least pretend to hate them if they wish to avoid giving an answer! But what if a rhetorical question involves a situation that's likely to happen and what if the situation is key to the future of Wales?
That's the scenario for you. By October 2010 it's quite possible that the UK will have a Conservative government. In such circumstances apparently two thirds of the members in the Bay would vote in favour of holding a referendum on gaining full legislative powers for the Assembly. There aren't enough Conservative members to block such a move and besides more than one Tory AM has told me they would ignore any whip to vote against a referendum.
Given those circumstances would the Secretary of State, Cheryl Gillan (or perhaps Jonathan Evans) reject the application? Peter Hain was of the opinion that no Secretary of State would dare do so. Apparently that was also the opinion Wyn Roberts' survey of the party's devolution policy until a few Conservative bigwigs got hold of the report and deleted one or two crucial clauses.
At present the Conservatives are preparing their manifesto for the general election. There's increasing pressure on Nick Bourne to ensure the document contains a specific and definite promise that the Secretary of State would not reject demands for a referendum. According to one forthright Conservative failure to do so would be disastrous and would allow the other parties to paint the Tories as an anti-Wales party: "if Nick Bourne loses the battle or refuses to fight it, then all the work he has done over the last decade will have been undone."
Translation by Dewi Dau
4 comments:
"if Nick Bourne loses the battle or refuses to fight it, then all the work he has done over the last decade will have been undone."
worth pointing out that Nick Bourne has done more than enough to undermine his own leadership and achievements over the last couple of months with his bad judgement calls, im afraid this looks like it will be just be another one to add to the list.
What the Tories do is irrelevant.
The referendum will already have passed through Parliament before the next election. Labour will make sure it's one of the last things they do before they leave office. The AWC will report at the end of this year, and Labour then have 5 months to get it through the Assembly and Parliament before the general election.
Of course the referendum itself will be held later, after the Tories have taken over in Westminster. And that, of course, will only strengthen the resolve of the three other parties in Wales to put on a united campaign for a "Yes" vote.
Labour, in particular, are on totally familiar territory when it comes to fighting against the Tories. They know their supporters probably don't really care all that much about the constitutional situation in Wales - that is too theoretical a subject on which to get their supporters out. But if they put it in easily understandable, concrete terms by saying that it's "a vote against the Tory government in Westminster" (who of course will be in office just when the full force of public services cuts are beginning to bite hard) they will come out in their tens of thousands to vote "Yes".
Keep it simple, stupid.
The problem for Bourne goes beyond his lack of clout on the big issues, his performance in the chamber is sloppy. Kirsty looks & sounds like the leader of the opposition.
"The referendum will already have passed through Parliament before the next election. Labour will make sure it's one of the last things they do before they leave office. The AWC will report at the end of this year, and Labour then have 5 months to get it through the Assembly and Parliament before the general election."
You don't think they might be a bit busy with other things? By that stage, Brown's government will be in tatters and Wales may not exactly be a top priority.
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